OK. The Iron Bowl is still more than 5 days away, so any weather predictions are subject to change! But, the weather will be very active by Thanksgiving Day and into the weekend, so let’s talk about it. Will the weather be a repeat of Bryant-Denny 2000? Rain/sleet and upper 30s? Probably not.
There is general agreement in the models that a major cold front will come through Alabama sometime on Thursday. We should get another round of showers and maybe thunderstorms with this system, with rainfall amounts possibly up to an inch. It’s too early to tell about any severe weather, but it looks right now like the instability with this system will not be that high once it gets to Alabama.
Once the rain ends, temperatures will fall into the 40s on Thursday, with wind chills in the 30s. What a classic cold front. Take a look at the temperature cross-section from Minnesota to the Gulf, looping from 6 pm Tuesday until 6 am Friday. Wow. It will then stay cold Friday and Saturday, with highs probably only in the 40s and lows in the 30s. GFS temperature predictions for BHM and AUB are graphed below. So, either way, the Iron Bowl will be chilly.
How chilly depends on whether or not it rains. Without rain, my best guess now would be a kickoff temp at 7 pm near 50, falling slowly to the mid 40s during the game. With rain, evaporative cooling could drop it down into the lower 40s. A very tough call right now. The models have been hinting since Friday that a low pressure area could form in the Gulf by the weekend, bringing rain back to Alabama by Saturday or Sunday. The GFS has become very aggressive with this idea on its latest run, showing light precip developing over Alabama Friday night and ending late Saturday. It even shows the precip beginning as sleet or snow in north Alabama Friday night before changing to all rain. Don’t worry, temps will be above freezing, so no problems there. The European model also shows a low in the Gulf Saturday.
Whether or not this low develops and brings rain to Alabama on Saturday is hard to say right now. Even if it does, trying to time it is even harder. The rain could be ending by the evening anyway.
It will be a very interesting week.
