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CALMING DOWN: The latest round of thunderstorms during the pre-dawn hours have come with a cool, stable airmass in place near the surface, so there was no risk of tornadoes. However, very cold air aloft associated with an upper trough was responsible for hail in most of the stronger storms overnight, and a number of severe thunderstorm warnings were issued. The storms have been weakening in recent hours, and the rain is now mostly along and south of I-59. Rain will end this morning, and the afternoon will be dry. We might even see a little sun at times, and the high will be in the mid 60s, about five degrees below average values for late March in Alabama (the average high today is 70).
MORE STORMS AT MID-WEEK: Clouds will thicken again tonight and tomorrow, and a shower could break out tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture feeds northward into Alabama. The next round of widespread rain and storms will come late tomorrow night into Wednesday. This time, there is very little surface based instability over the northern half of Alabama, so the primary risk of severe storms will be mostly over the southern counties of the state, south of U.S. 80. But, some of the storms up this way could contain hail, much like the ones early this morning.
Rain amounts from tomorrow night through Wednesday should be in the one to two inch range, with the heavier totals down south, where some spots could see up to three inches.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A deep upper trough forms over the eastern U.S., and these two days look rather cloudy and cool. The models did a pretty rotten job with thermal values this past weekend; it was much cooler than guidance over North Alabama yesterday (some places north of U.S. 278 never got out of the 40s, where the models had suggested highs would be in the 60s), and MOS numbers sure look too warm on these days. Could very well be days with highs in the 50s.
We might even see some light rain or drizzle in spots Thursday or Thursday night, but nothing really significant. The good news is that the clouds, most likely, will prevent us from getting a late season freeze threat. Still, we will keep an eye on things as we go along this week.
MUCH BETTER WEEKEND: We warm nicely Saturday and Sunday with a good supply of sunshine both days. So, if your outdoor plans were rained out this past weekend, you won’t have any problems this time. The high Saturday will be in the mid 70s, and we might be approaching 80 Sunday afternoon.
LONG RANGE: More showers or storms will likely make an appearance early next week… see the Weather Xtreme video for long range details. And, if we can make it past the end of this week with no freeze, we don’t see anything in the medium range that suggests a freeze threat for North Alabama.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We record this week’s episode at 8:30 CDT tonight… tonight, the WeatherBrains crew will welcome Carol Ann Garrat, a pilot and adventurer who holds several world records. She will talk about how the weather affects pilots who are making around the world flights. I am sure she has some stories to tell. I bet JB tells his story about briefing an international flight crew about the Birmingham Airport during his days at the U.S. Weather Bureau.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | WeatherBrains Podcast | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
I have a severe weather safety program this morning at an Alabama Power facility in Shelby County (very close to where the rotating wall cloud went over Saturday afternoon!)… and then a program at Center Point Elementary a little later. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
