An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
First off, on a housekeeping note, we will go into a holiday schedule through the weekend with just one Weather Xtreme video per day, but the blog updates will stay frequent when storms arrive here tonight, and later in the upcoming weekend. No such thing as a holiday in the weather business, you know… the weather goes on.
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE: Our first weather system will bring a healthy round of showers and storms to Alabama late this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow morning. While a few showers will break out during the day today, 5t still looks like the best chance of stronger storms will come from around midnight tonight through 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. The good news, of course, is that this is when the atmosphere is most stable, and the storms should slowly weaken as they drop southward. SPC has taken most of Alabama out of the slight severe weather risk; it runs roughly from Lufkin, Texas to Nashville, and it does include the northwest corner of Alabama.
The 00Z NAM is printing only 0.30″ for Birmingham during the next 24 hours, while the GFS is wetter with 0.46″.
COLDER FOR THANKSGIVING: As the rain moves out tomorrow morning, much colder air rolls into Alabama. Still looks like a day where we fall from the mid 50s into the 40s with a very brisk northwest wind. Quite a raw day.
FRIDAY: No weather problems for the big shopping day… sunny and cool weather is the story with a low near freezing, and a high in the low 50s.
SYSTEM NUMBER TWO: Wet weather will return over the weekend… but nailing down the details will be quite a challenge. We really need to get system number one out of here before we deal with this one. But… for now… here is what we are looking at…
Overrunning begins on Saturday… moist air going up and over the shallow layer of colder air near the surface. There will be some evaporative cooling at the onset of the precipitation, and it sure looks like a cold rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. No change in our thinking for the Iron Bowl; the weather looks cold and wet with rain likely and temperatures in the 40s down in Auburn Saturday night.
The 00Z and 06Z model cycles are slower with the main system. In fact, the 06Z GFS suggests there could be a break in the rain on Sunday, and it holds off the final round of rain and storms until Monday. It still hints that a good part of Alabama could break into the warm sector by then, meaning a significant chance of severe weather. If the 12Z runs keep this trend up, we will have to shift the best chance of severe storms into Monday of next week. But, on the positive side, this would mean a three day rain opportunity for Alabama (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday), and the chance of some very beneficial rain around here.
LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to show the coldest air so far this season blowing in here around December 3, with a big rain event just prior to that. Voodoo, yes, but excellent model consistency in the idea.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
We will have blog updates through the day and tonight… I will try to crank out a Weather Xtreme video at some point tomorrow afternoon from the ABC 33/40 Weather Center (yep, I will be working tomorrow… I think I have worked every Thanksgiving for the last 30 years). I will also have an updated discussion here later today. If you are traveling, be safe.. you can scroll down for J.B.’s extensive travel forecast he posted yesterday!
