We are on a holiday schedule… just one Weather Xtreme video per day through Sunday. You can see this morning’s video in the player below:
TONIGHT: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather over far West Alabama, and points to the west:
Surface based CAPE values are now a little over 1,000 j/kg over West Alabama, but the primary instability axis runs from near Monroe, LA to Memphis, where a tornado watch is in effect.
A first grader could pick out the cold front today… at 3:00 in Arkansas Little Rock reported 75, while Fayetteville was at 38. That is a big time temperature gradient.
The bottom line on tonight’s expected weather is unchanged… the primary squall line will move through our state during the late night and early morning hours, when the atmosphere is most stable, so I really don’t expect a serious issue with severe thunderstorms here. They should weaken as they move on to the southeast overnight. But, as always, we will keep an eye on things.
The NAM remains fairly bearish on rain… the 12Z run is printing only 0.22″ for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 0.32″. Both models look a tad too dry since some Alabama communities have already seen that much this afternoon. You have to figure most places will get about one-half inch of rain tonight.
A COLD THANKSGIVING: I think the models are underestimating the cold air moving in here tomorrow. They are about 10 degrees too warm for places like Northwest Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma today; those models often struggle with shallow cold air. Look for the temperature here to drop into the 40s tomorrow with a brisk northwest wind. It will be a raw day, but the lingering showers should end during the morning hours.
Friday will be cool and dry with ample sunshine and a low in the low 30s, around the freezing mark.
WET WEEKEND: Rain should become widespread across Alabama Saturday and Saturday night as overrunning kicks in. We might not get out of the 40s on Saturday as the rain will initially evaporate in the lowest levels, which is a cooling process. The weather for the Iron Bowl still looks cold and wet with rain likely at Auburn Saturday night with temperatures in the 40s. Knowing the climatology in Lee County and this kind of situation, if anything it might be even colder than we project… the thermometer might even try to creep into the upper 30s if there is a good deal of evaporative cooling during the day, and a CAD effect going on to the east (cold air damming). Sure looks miserable.
The 12Z run of the GFS continues the slower look for the threat of severe storms with this system… it brings the warm sector northward into Alabama overnight Sunday night, and shows the main round of thunderstorms during the day Monday with a decent potential for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes. We will really focus on this event in coming days.
The good news is that some really beneficial rain is likely Saturday through Monday, with potential for two to three inches statewide during those three days.
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Scroll down to see pictures from the annual Rick and Bubba turkey toss this morning… that was some real fun. Stay tuned to be blog for updates on the storms tonight… and I will crank out a Weather Xtreme video and discussion tomorrow afternoon after the big Thanksgiving feast at our house (I will be working the TV night shift tomorrow night as usual on ABC 33/40).
I hope you and your family have a great and peaceful Thanksgiving Day. So many of us enjoy God’s richest blessings. This is truly a time to be thankful.
