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TODAY/TOMORROW: The warm-up continues… we rise into the upper 70s today with a good supply of sunshine. Then, tonight, very moist air moves up into the state from the south, and tomorrow will be very warm and very humid with dewpoints up in the mid 60s and a high in the low to mid 80s. A layer of stratus clouds will likely form late tonight; that will give way to sun at times by mid-morning. And, with the low level moisture in place, we will continue to mention the risk of scattered showers tomorrow. The chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in four, much like a summer day. The rain won’t be especially heavy or widespread.
SUMMER-LIKE WEEKEND: The GFS is printing a high of 87 Saturday… no doubt it will be the warmest day so far this year for much of Alabama as the 5880 meter 500 mb ridge noses into the state from the Gulf of Mexico. The warm air aloft associated with the ridge should keep us generally dry. Pretty much the same thing Sunday; a high in the 80s with very little chance of rain during the day. Any showers that form Sunday should be pretty isolated.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: The deep upper trough over the western U.S. will be lifting out; the associated surface low will be way up north over Minnesota, with a trailing cold front. The GFS and the ECMWF are now in pretty decent agreement, suggesting the line of storms along the front will be moving through Alabama sometime between 2:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. Monday. There might be a few strong storms in the line; SPC has the northwest corner of Alabama in a severe weather risk for the pre-dawn hours Monday, but we figure those storms will be weakening with time as the main upper support passes to the north. In fact, it looks like rain will be pretty light with amounts under 1/4 inch Monday morning. Then, drier air begins to return Monday afternoon in the wake of the storms.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: The weather looks dry and pleasant Tuesday and Wednesday… but the 00Z GFS shows a strong trough moving through on Thursday with a good chance of showers and storms. Drier air returns just in time for Friday and the following weekend (April 15-17), which is race weekend at Talladega.
VOODOO LAND: Looks like an upper ridge wants to take over later into April with warm and dry conditions… see the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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I will be doing a weather program this morning at the Calhoun County Career Technical Center in Jacksonville… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
