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J.B. will have a long list of rain totals a little later this morning once they are all collected. My total in northern Shelby County is 0.75″… and admittedly a disappointment. We had projected storm totals of 2 inches with this system… with potential of up to 3 inches. We are going to have a number of spots with one to two inches, mainly east and west of the Birmingham metro, but most of the good, two inch rains are going to be over South Alabama. Just seems like that has been the favored place for rain in 2007 here in Alabama.
This system is a great example of how important the mesoscale (very small scale) features can be in determining how much rain falls, and the severe weather potential. The models did a great job on the synoptic scale, but a lousy job with the mesoscale. The warm sector never made it this far north, and there was no severe weather most of Alabama (nobody is complaining about that; I sure wasn’t looking forward to staying up all night at the TV station)… and the overrunning rain event over the weekend was not as great as forecast.
MOVING ON: The actual cold front is still west of Alabama; it will be moving through during the day today; we note that new showers are forming ahead of the front over West Alabama as I write this around 6:00 a.m. One more band of showers will move through the state with the front, and then we get into cooler and drier air this afternoon. Temperatures will probably begin to fall once the front passes through.
MID TO LATE WEEK: The weather will be dry for the rest of the week; the high tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 50s, while we reach the low to mid 60s on Wednesday. A cold front will come through in dry fashion late Wednesday night, and bring a fresh supply of dry air that should keep us rain-free through Friday.
WEEKEND PEEK: Sure looks like the next cold front with any potential for rain will come late in the weekend; we will bring in a chance of showers and storms Sunday, perhaps lasting into Monday (looks like Saturday will be dry at this time). The 06Z GFS is showing the wave embedded in a zonal flow; last week the model was advertising a high amplitude flow with potential for much colder air by early next week. Lets wait a few days before we get too confident in a specific solution for this next system…
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I enjoyed a long road trip over weekend down to Southwest Alabama… you can scroll down and see some pictures I took along the way. Today, I head in the same general direction, but a much shorter trip to Woodstock Elementary School in Bibb County. After that I head back to the office… the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
