An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
The weather is always interesting this time of the year… and it sure will be fun to watch through the rest of December.
RIGHT NOW: The weather this morning is colder than guidance… models are having a hard time with the big early season snow cover to the north, and this air has been coming right over that snow. From viewing all of the reports from our great team of Skywatchers on the instant message conference, it looks like most folks are in the 26 to 32 degree range right now. Today will be a cool day with ample sunshine and a high in the low to mid 50s.
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: We warm up dramatically, flirting with record highs by the weekend. We will be close to 60 tomorrow, followed by low to mid 70s on Saturday and Sunday. Here are the record highs for the weekend:
Saturday December 8 79 (1978)
Sunday December 9 74 (1946)
The record for Saturday is safe, but that record on Sunday could be in jeopardy.
Along with the warmth will come increasing low level moisture and cloudy periods. There might be a rogue shower in isolated spots, but I really think most places will remain dry, and I have not mentioned showers in our formal forecast.
TO THE WEST: A major early season winter storm will impact the western part of the nation over the weekend with heavy mountain snow and lots of rain for the lower elevations. The key to our weather next week is how this thing lifts out.
The 06Z GFS really shows it lifting out in two pieces… both of them will pass north of Alabama, but the final part of the storm should drag a cold front through here at mid-week. For now, it looks like the best chance of showers will come Tuesday night and Wednesday. I am still not convinced it will be a big rain event, but the model runs have looked a little more aggressive over the past 24 hours.
We should note this setup could bring some pretty nasty icing to places like Oklahoma City and Wichita late in the weekend and early next week.
We will turn much cooler following the showers during the latter half of next week.
VOODOO LAND: I often get questions from people asking why I talk about potential weather events beyond seven days, when there is little skill in a specific forecast. I do this because…
*People that read this blog are very meteorologically inclined and understand the limitations; we are just talking about model output. It is not a forecast.
*There is skill in pattern recognition, which offers very important information for utilities and other businesses that depend on longer range weather outlooks.
The GFS continues the idea of a very strong system impacting Alabama in the December 16-18 time frame, with a really nice chance of rain and strong storms, followed by a big shot of very cold air. Watch the video for a look at the GFS. Very interesting.
WHAT ABOUT CHRISTMAS: Too early… lets talk about that next week.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
I am headed into the far eastern part of Alabama today… I will be speaking to the kids at Fruithurst Elementary School in Cleburne County this morning. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and I will have the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
