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While we bask in our December “heat wave”, much of the nation is on snow and ice. Ice storm warnings are up from North Texas through most of Oklahoma, into parts of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. This is really a nasty situation with the possibility of widespread power outages and disruption in travel.
THE ALABAMA STORY: No real change in our weather through Wednesday. Highs in the mid 70s, close to record levels. Morning fog, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds each day with any showers being few and far between. Here is a look at the record highs around here in the days ahead…
LOCATION TODAY TUE WED
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BIRMINGHAM 73(1972) 76(1931) 78(1971)
TUSCALOOSA 74(1971) 75(1979) 79(1971)
ANNISTON 77(1972) 73(1971) 77(1971)
MONTGOMERY 81(1972) 81(1931) 82(1971)
LOOKING AHEAD: The big upper trough over the Southwest U.S. lifts out at mid-week, dragging a cold front our way, which will bring the next chance of showers by Thursday. The latest run of the GFS (the 06Z run) suggests the best chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, will come Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. No drought buster; amounts of one-quarter inch are likely, perhaps up to one-half inch on the high end.
A CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER: Lots of model disagreement Friday and beyond making for a low confidence forecast. But, there is pretty much no doubt we trend toward colder weather by Friday and the weekend. Perhaps much colder; the GFS won’t be able to resolve the shallow cold air coming over the big ice pack north of here. Don’t be surprised if the GFS MOS numbers are as much as ten degrees too warm.
A southwest flow aloft continues over the colder air Friday, which means clouds and perhaps some light rain. The latest run of the GFS suggests a dry but cold weekend ahead. Then, it brings moisture back for a chance of rain one week from today (December 17).
No real need to venture into voodoo land this morning; when the models are struggling with the situation three days in advance, you know there isn’t much hope in any good resolution in the day 7 to 16 time frame.
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Thanks to everyone in Clanton for their hospitality Friday night… their Christmas parade was huge, well organized, and well attended. Always good to see lots of long time friends down there. Today, I am on the road to Northwest Alabama; I will be speaking at Hamilton Elementary School this morning. This will be my first ride on the new segment of Corridor X (U.S. 78/I-22) from Graysville to Jasper. I will check it out, but as you know I like the roads less traveled, so old U.S. 78 won’t be off the map for me. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!
