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I find it interesting that every time we mention some chance of snow, even snow flurries, it brings out some serious passion from our readers. The hate mail crowd really gets out in full force… they rant about how the models are 95 percent wrong (I would love to know where that number came from), meteorologists are idiots, they rely on computer models and get it wrong most of the time, it never snows in Alabama anymore, etc, etc… I don’t mind getting that kind of stuff, but we all have limited time and energy, and I would think you could use the time and energy it takes to write nasty e-mail messages or comments and use it for a better purpose. But, that is just my opinion.
I should note we keep very accurate verification data here on our forecasts… so if anyone has an issue on a certain forecast I will be glad to discuss with factual information on what we forecast, and what actually happened. Sure, we make a mistake every so often, but the 48 hour accuracy rate would surprise all of the hate mail crowd. It even surprises me.
RIGHT NOW: Check out these 2:00 p.m. observations around Alabama:
Montgomery 81
Alexander City 79
Calera (Shelby County Airport) 78
Tuscaloosa 78
Birmingham 77
Anniston 77
Just about all of these are new record highs… Birmingham’s old record for today was 76 set way back in 1931.
TOMORROW: Not much change… we head for the mid to upper 70s with a mix of sun and clouds.
THURSDAY: The big upper trough that was parked over the Southwest U.S. will weaken and pass north of Alabama as it lifts out; the trailing front will bring showers by Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night. Unfortunately, rain won’t be too heavy; amounts of one-quarter of an inch should be the norm.
FRIDAY: We turn sharply colder; the GFS shows a high of 58 for Birmingham; I think we won’t get out of the low 50s. The weather on Friday will be dry with some sun at times.
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: This is the one getting all of the buzz. All of the models are converging on a similar solution, which leads to a fairly high confidence forecast in terms of the synoptic scale features. A strong upper trough approaching from the west will spin up a surface low, which will move from near Mobile early Saturday morning to near Boston by Sunday night.
During the day Saturday, rain should become widespread across Alabama; we believe many communities could see one-half inch of rain from this weather system, with the heavier totals over South Alabama where a few thunderstorms are possible.
As the surface low moves to the northeast, colder air will be pulled into Alabama, and the rain should change to snow for a period before ending Saturday night. The primary window for snow flakes seems to be from about 5:00 p.m. until 9:00 p.m. Considering the warm ground and the fast movement of this system, serious accumulation doesn’t seem likely for North-Central Alabama. The best chance of getting some snow on the ground, most likely, will be over the mountains of Northeast Alabama; places like Mentone and around Desoto State Park.
Should the surface low be stronger than forecast, and move a on a track a little more to the east, then we might be talking potential for accumulation here. Lets get the Thursday cold front out of here, and we can really focus on the weekend.
Sharply colder air rolls into Alabama following the storm system Saturday night and Sunday. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s on Sunday, and temperatures should be well below freezing both Sunday and Monday morning. This will be a huge change from the record warmth we are enjoying now.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS looks mild and potentially wet for Christmas Day, but that is way out there in voodoo country, as you know. There isn’t much skill in a specific weather forecast beyond seven days, but we do like to peek at the model output. Let me remind the GFS haters that the model was on this weekend’s storm over 10 days ago. Not bad…
OLGA: Our sub-tropical storm will move westward, toward Jamaica during the mid-week period producing windy and wet weather for that island… it will keep moving to the west, remaining well south of the Gulf of Mexico. Watch the video for the graphics.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories. Plenty of great articles over there today on the big ice storm and much more.
Scroll down to see some pictures I took this morning at the ABC 33/40 Habitat For Humanity Home being built in Titusville… what a great day for building a house. Now I am off to the Bruno’s in Hoover at Alabama 150 and South Shades Crest Road for a little “celebrity bagging” to help our Home for the Holidays campaign. I will be out there live at 5:00 and 6:00… Brian Peters will have the office staffed here. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
