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A little behind schedule today… so lets press on…..
TOMORROW: We will maintain a good chance of showers tomorrow with a cold front passing through the state. As we have discussed this week, rain will not be especially beneficial; we are projecting rain amounts of one-quarter of an inch or less.
FRIDAY: Dry and cool weather is the story on Friday… we continue to believe model guidance is too high with the air coming over the vast snow and ice fields to the north; we figure the high will be in the low to mid 50s; about twenty degrees cooler than recent days. It will be a big change.
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: The GFS continues to trend more westward and northward with the surface low, which means we have a greater chance of getting into the warm sector here in Alabama. We will need to revise high temperatures upward on Saturday due to this track shift; we might reach the low 60s, especially south of Birmingham. Unfortunately, it looks like the heaviest rain could be north of here, but we still believe most communities can expect one-half inch of rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Some thunderstorms will probably be involved with the warm sector moving northward, but any severe weather should be limited to the southern quarter of Alabama.
As the low moves to the northeast, much colder air drops into the state Saturday night and Sunday, and there remains a brief window where the rain could change to light snow or snow flurries over North Alabama. It should not amount to much, and no accumulation is expected due to the warm ground temps and the fact that the moisture will be pulling away quickly as the cold air arrives.
Sunday will be a blustery day with temperatures having a hard time getting out of the low 40s with a brisk north wind. The GFS continues to show potential for snow flurries early Sunday morning before the sky becomes mostly sunny.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Monday and Tuesday of next week will be dry and cool. We should mention that we should be well below freezing both Sunday and Monday morning.
The 12Z run of the GFS is painting nice rain events for Alabama on December 20, and again on Christmas Eve, December 24. But, that is out there in voodoo country. At least the model consistency has been good for a couple of decent rain events before the year is over.
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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
