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Looks like some very interesting weather in the days ahead…. lets break it down.
RIGHT NOW: We note the Hamilton SKYCAM site is down to 55 degrees; while to the south the SKYCAM at Clanton is 14 degrees warmer at 69. As expected, rain today has been light and spotty; most folks are reporting under a tenth of an inch over on our Skywatcher Instant Message network. We should note the same system that is bringing the showers to Alabama today is producing a big time snow storm up in the Northeast U.S… looks like a white-out up in Boston right now.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Cool and dry weather is the story; the GFS is printing a low of 44 and a high of 58 tomorrow; that sounds pretty good to me. The sky should be partly sunny as we will be in-between storm systems. To the west tomorrow, snow is likely over much of North and West Oklahoma on top of the ice. What a mess.
SATURDAY: The new storm roars out of the gate, and should bring about one-half inch of rain to Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours. The GFS hints the best rain will hold off until the 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. time frame. Here is the HPC thoughts on the track of the surface low:
As the surface low moves to the northeast, away from Alabama, colder air is pulled southward and the rain should change to light snow or snow flurries late Saturday night into the early morning hours on Sunday. The GFS hints at the chance of one inch for the high terrain of Northeast Alabama (around Mentone and Desoto State Park) Saturday night, but due to the warm ground I would not expect any serious accumulation. The model also suggests snow flurries as far south as Bibb, Shelby, and Talladega counties by the pre-dawn hours Sunday. It should be nothing more than a novelty, especially since we were close to 80 degrees earlier this week.
Sunday will be a cold and blustery day; we will have a hard time reaching the low 40s despite a clearing sky. The coldest morning will come early Monday, when we drop into the mid 20s. The first half of next week will be cool and dry.
LONG RANGE: Confidence is growing at the idea of a beneficial rain event for Alabama at the next of next week (around Friday December 21). The 12Z GFS continues to be rather aggressive with the system. The GFS identified the system that will move through Alabama about 12 days ago… it has been performing very well this month.
Deeper into the land of voodoo, the 12Z GFS shows a big rain event on Christmas Eve, December 24, and another one around December 28. The timing will change, of course, but the idea of at least three good rain events between now and the end of the year seems very plausible. Even if do get them, this will still be our driest year on record.
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I am about to head out to the Riverchase Galleria for a live weather shot at 5:00 and 6:00… I understand the Toys for Tots campaign still needs around 5,000 toys, I will be talking with all of the folks involved and hopefully we will get a good response. If you want to help, you can drop a new toy off at any Birmingham new auto dealer through tomorrow. Then, after that I will be off to Center Point to speak at the annual Center Point Chamber of Commerce Christmas Banquet. Never a dull moment this time of the year.
The next Weather Xtreme video will be up by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…..
