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Our new storm is taking shape off to the west, where snow is increasing across Kansas and parts of western Oklahoma as I write this. This system holds the key to our weekend weather…
It still appears our primary window for rain here will be from about 4:00 p.m. until 10:00 p.m. tomorrow. There might even be some thunderstorms involved, and SPC has introduced a slight risk of severe weather for the southeast tip of Alabama (around Dothan) and across the Florida panhandle and South Georgia. Rainfall amounts of up one-quarter to one-half inch can be expected for the I-20 corridor, with the potential for heavier amounts up north across the Tennessee Valley. The NAM is printing only 0.21″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is wetter with 0.44″.
As the surface low pulls away to the northeast, and colder air rolls into Alabama, the rain should taper off to light snow or snow flurries late tomorrow night into Sunday morning. The GFS shows 0.02″ of precipitation when thickness values are low enough for snow, while the NAM is not as bullish on the idea of snow flurries. I believe the GFS has a much better handle on the storm, so the idea of light snow or flurries will remain in the forecast from about midnight tomorrow night through 9:00 a.m. Sunday. The ground is very warm, so the snow flakes should melt as they hit the surface. Best chance for a dusting on cars will come up on Lookout Mountain in Northeast Alabama.
Sunday promises to be a cold and blustery day; we will have a hard time reaching the low 40s. Clouds could linger much of the day, and where the clouds hang tough, I am not sure we can get out of the 30s. Then, Sunday night, with a clear sky and light wind temperatures will drop quickly, and the average low early Monday morning should be in the mid 20s. Quite a change from the record warmth we had just a few days ago.
LONG RANGE: A pretty decent system will move through here during the latter part of next week; recent GFS runs now show the best chance of rain Thursday afternoon and Thursday night (December 20), with clearing and colder weather for Friday (December 21). Then, Christmas week, the GFS remains bullish on a major pre-Christmas storm system that will bring rain to Alabama. The 12Z run shows rain on December 23, with colder air arriving on Christmas eve (yep, we see those low thickness values and the wrap around moisture!). Watch the video for the details… but remember, don’t get too excited since we are in voodoo land. But, many people are dreaming of a you know what.
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I enjoyed being at Greystone Elementary today for a teacher appreciation lunch put on by Scott Dawson and his team… teachers have a thankless job and it was great to recognize them and say “thanks”. This evening I will be live at 5:00 and 6:00 from the Toys for Tots drop-off at the old Galleria 10 theater location. Brian Peters will have the video updates over the weekend… I will be back with my next video bright and early Monday morning at 7:00!
