The forecast for next weekend will be interesting. We should see some cold air return to Alabama late next week, then the cold front may stall near the Gulf Coast, allowing a surface low pressure area to form along it, bringing precipitation (maybe snow) to parts of the Southeast. The cold air mass next week doesn’t look as cold as the one we had this week, but with this past one, as my Granny used to say, it was almost “too cold to snow”. In a way, that’s true, since the cold air went all the way down into Florida, limiting the potential for a Gulf Low to develop.
The 12 UTC models are not in excellent agreement. The European model shows a low near the Gulf Coast by Monday, with the air over the SE likely too warm for snow.
The Canadian GEM shows a Gulf low much sooner, on Friday, with a large area of precip, but it also looks too warm for snow, at least through Sunday morning, with the 542 thickness line way to our NW.
Canadian GEM precip, msl pressure, and thickness Friday morning.
The NOGAPS shows plenty of cold air coming in, but no precip around here. This model seems to have a dry bias lately.
NOGAPS 850 mb temps and precip for Friday.
The GFS has been hinting at a snowstorm in the Southeast for days now. Right now, it probably shows the best combination of precip and cold air next weekend, but it doesn’t look ideal for an Alabama snow. It shows 850 mb temps below 0 C (the blue line), and cold enough for snow in north Alabama by next Saturday. But, it keeps the heaviest precip to our south. If this model verifies, we could see a light snow Saturday, but no big deal.
GFS 850 mb temps, mslp, and precip for next Saturday morning through Sunday morning.
Isn’t all this fun? We’ll keep watching the models…at least there is a potential.
