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Be sure and check out our sister site, weatherparty.com, for a good review of news stories on the big tornado outbreak during the next 24 hours, including the fatalities in Arkansas and Missouri.
RIGHT NOW: A new tornado watch has been issued for much of North Mississippi and West Tennessee until 9:00 p.m. The storms to the west should weaken as they move into Alabama tonight due to weakening dynamics and limited instability. The models continue to suggest relatively light rain amounts tonight, mostly in the one-quarter inch category. The best chance of showers and storms will come in the 7:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. time frame.
TOMORROW: Most of the day will be dry for the northern half of Alabama; the surface boundary should stall out somewhere near Montgomery, keeping the showers confined to the southern counties. But, tomorrow night that boundary moves northward, and showers are possible statewide. We should note here that temperatures tomorrow will be about ten degrees cooler, with a high in the low 60s.
THURSDAY: This should be a much more robust rain event, with amounts of one to two inches statewide. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for all of Alabama on Thursday; the 12Z NAM shows our highest surface based CAPE here only at 365 j/kg, but it could be underestimating the instability.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Temperatures get back to where they should be this time of the year; highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Both of these days should be rain-free with a mix of sun and clouds.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: The 12Z run of the GFS continues the idea of the Gulf of Mexico storm remaining far enough to the south not to impact the northern half of Alabama, but the Canadian GEM model is much farther to the north, showing some rain for much of Alabama Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, and a possible change to light snow or snow flurries before ending. Neither model shows any big chance of a significant winter storm threat for Alabama, but lets review this again Thursday night before we talk about it with any great confidence level.
LONG RANGE: The GFS still looks very cold in the January 14-22 time frame, with the chance of a good storm or two along the way. Snow lovers will be watching this period closely.
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I sure enjoyed speaking to the Tuscaloosa County School bus drivers this morning at Hillcrest High School in Tuscaloosa… they were a great audience. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
