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As usual during January, the severe weather potential today across Alabama today will pretty much be determined by the amount of surface based instability, or the ability for parcels of air to rise freely. A very dynamic system with a good jet structure will a strong wind field and lots of helicity to our state, but the big question involves those dewpoints; can they rise into the low or mid 60s here later today?
A little hard to pick out a well defined warm front this morning, but the dewpoint at Birmingham is up to 60, and Mobile shows a dewpoint at 5:00. Anniston is still rather stable with a dp of 53, but that will rise through the morning. Most of the models are projecting surface based CAPE values between 500 and 1000 j/kg by late afternoon, and that is certainly adequate for severe storms in January.
SPC maintains a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across all of Alabama, and they mention they could make an upgrade to a moderate risk later this morning, depending on the instability issue.
We still believe the greatest risk of severe weather in Alabama will come from 2:00 until 10:00 p.m. A squall line will move through the state tonight with good chance of bowing segments and some straight line wind damage; prior to the line we will have a chance for more cellular storms with isolated tornadoes. Everyone will keep to keep an eye on the sky today, and be sure you are in a position to hear severe weather warnings in the event they are needed.
NICE RAIN EVENT: On the positive side, we are still looking at rain totals between 1 and 2 inches statewide during the next 24 hours. We can celebrate that.
LOOKING AHEAD: Rain and storms will end late tonight, and tomorrow and Saturday will be dry and cool with highs back in the 50s, where they should be this time of the year.
SNOW FLAKES SUNDAY???? Wow… watch the video to see how the 06Z GFS is handling our weekend Gulf wave. Now, for all the GFS bashers, remember, the model identified this system two weeks ago. To me, understanding the complexity of the atmosphere, that is a modern miracle that a system could be identified by NWP (numerical weather prediction) 14 days in advance with only two sets of upper air data a day! But, now we are getting close, and after today we can really focus on it.
But, the 06Z shows a much wetter wave with potential for rain over much of Alabama on Sunday. And, the 0 degree line (C) at 850 mb (5000 feet) is right over Birmingham, meaning some snow flakes are possible for North Alabama. But, surface temperatures will be above freezing, and the ground is warm, so if any flakes are seen, more than likely they won’t pose a problem. But, lets get today’s system out of here and we can really be specific.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Next week will be colder, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s by Monday. Out into voodoo land, the GFS continues to hint at a split flow kind of pattern during the latter half of the month which might bring some fun and games to the nation where the cold air is shallow, and short waves bring a southwest flow and good lift.
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I will make an effort to crank out an afternoon Weather Xtreme video, but if the weather starts to shake and bake, then it won’t happen, and the next video will be up by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. But, of course, the blog will be hopping with frequent updates through the day and tonight. We are strapping in for a long day; stay tuned….
