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When I first came to Birmingham TV in the late 1970s as the main weather anchor for WAPI-TV (now WVTM-TV, Channel 13), I asked Bob Ferry, the Meteorologist-In-Charge of the Birmingham National Weather Service office, what are the toughest forecast situations in Alabama. He immediately came up with convection on a summer afternoon (trying to nail the placement and timing of “scattered afternoon thunderstorms”), and winter weather events (who gets rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain). If you were to ask me that today, here in 2008, I would give the same answer.
The period from midnight Wednesday night until 9:00 Thursday morning is the focus of this discussion, but…
SHORT TERM: Dry and cold weather is the story today and tomorrow. Most stations this morning are somewhere between 24 and 29 degrees, and tomorrow morning should be colder. Despite a sunny sky today, we will struggle to reach the low 50s, and tomorrow’s highs will be only in the mid to upper 40s.
MID-WEEK STORM: All models are in very good agreement about the idea of a surface storm in the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, which will bring precipitation to Alabama beginning Wednesday afternoon. The precipitation will become widespread Wednesday night, before ending Thursday morning. With cold air in place across the Deep South, the issue is the precipitation type.
The 06Z runs of the GFS, NAM, and the 00Z ECMWF all tend to agree that most of the precipitation will be in the form of rain for areas south of I-20. And, quite frankly, the 00Z set suggests your best chance of seeing snowflakes will be north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. There might even be a period of freezing rain for that part of the state (the northern third) as surface temperatures will try to ease down to 32 degrees in the pre-dawn hours Thursday, along with the potential for some bridge icing.
We should note the 00Z run of the NAM was more bullish on snow for North Alabama, perhaps down to Birmingham.
So, what does all of this model mumbo-jumbo mean?
BOTTOM LINE: We will forecast the chance of a wintry mix for North Alabama late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. For now, the chance of any travel issues for the I-20 corridor (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston) looks minimal, even if snow flakes mix in with the rain, with surface temps just above freezing.
There would be some bridge icing along and north of U.S. 278 (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden) early Thursday morning with temperatures in the 30 to 34 degree range up there. It should be a relatively short term problem, however, as temperatures rise slowly Thursday.
But, we all know this could change. I am intrigued by temperatures up north that are much colder than forecast over parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota (Warroad, MN is at -17 degrees now with a wind chill index of -34). Models seem to be struggling with the depth of the Arctic air up there. Keep reading the blog for updates during the next few days. In fact, updates will probably be coming fast and furious, so be sure we are in your RSS feed reader, or just check the blog pretty often.
AFTER THURSDAY: Very cold air settles in here by the weekend. I think the GFS MOS stinks for the weekend; most likely we won’t get out of the 30s on Saturday, and we will be well down in the teens by daybreak Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Looks like another potential threat for snow or ice across the Deep South one week from tomorrow, around Tuesday January 22. More fun and games… but lets take these storms one at a time. The pattern looks cold and unsettled for the rest of January.
LOTS OF PICTURES: Let me recommend that you scroll down and see all of the pictures posted here in recent days… lots of shots from tornado damaged areas of West Alabama and East Mississippi. Thanks to all of our Skywatchers and readers who shared the shots. Good stuff.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a few show tonight; it should be posted by 10:00 or so.
I am planning on a weather program out at Brookwood Forest Elementary in Mountain Brook later today, then I will be back in the office for the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so!
