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Confidence is growing that the northern quarter of Alabama (understand, we are talking areas along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden) will experience a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion… the bottom line is that the 12Z NAM has come in a little colder, and the GFS remains a little warmer. Really I don’t see much need to make a big change in our public forecast. So, here goes…
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Clear and cold are the two big words. We will be in the 24 to 29 degree range by daybreak tomorrow, with a high tomorrow afternoon somewhere between 45 and 50.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The sky becomes cloudy quickly Wednesday morning, and some rain should spread into the area from the southwest Wednesday afternoon. The rain will become widespread Wednesday night as a surface low passes across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
There is a chance that snow flakes could mix in with the rain late Wednesday night and Thursday morning mainly north of U.S. 278, and with surface temperatures expected to be near freezing, there could also be some freezing rain and bridge icing in a few spots. At this point, it looks like temperatures will be in the mid 30s along the I-20 corridor (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston), and the risk of icing problems still seems minimal at this time. But, for places like Huntsville, Hamilton, Moulton, Cullman, Decatur, and Fort Payne, there could be some icy spots in bridges where the surface temperature can drop down to 32 degrees.
On Thursday, there is some chance the rain could taper off to light snow flurries on the back side of the departing storm, but temperatures should be above freezing and travel problems are not expected.
Could all of this change? You bet. But, we just don’t see any serious need to depart from the forecast ideas we presented here this morning.
THE WEEKEND AHEAD: Still looks very cold. GFS MOS numbers are coming down, but are still too warm. I think a high in the mid 30s is a good idea for Birmingham, with mid teens by Sunday morning. The colder valleys will be closer to 10 degrees by daybreak Sunday.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The pattern continues to look cold and unsettled; the next storm system early next week (Monday and Tuesday, January 21-22) could pose a snow or ice threat for somebody across the Deep South.
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I really enjoyed speaking to the 3rd graders today at Brookwood Forest Elementary School in Mountain Brook; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
