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Clouds will increase across Alabama during the next 12 hours in advance of a developing surface low in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Our forecast thinking on the event pretty much remains the same…
TOMORROW: Rain will initially evaporate before reaching the ground tomorrow afternoon; the evaporative cooling process will set up the possibility for a few snow flakes or ice pellets (sleet) to be mixed in with the rain as it begins tomorrow evening. Temperatures will be above freezing, so no travel issues are expected.
Rain will continue tomorrow night and will taper off early Thursday morning as the low pulls away to the northeast. For the I-20 corridor (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston), we are still projecting temperatures above freezing during the entire event. In fact, temps might even rise a few degrees tomorrow night as warm air advection kicks in.
The only potential trouble spot will be the high terrain of extreme Northeast Alabama, mainly across Jackson and DeKalb counties. The surface temperature could drop into the 30 to 32 degree range for a few hours tomorrow night, setting up the possibility of some patchy bridge icing. This should be a temporary issue, however.
TO THE EAST: Freezing rain is a little more likely over the northern quarter of Georgia tomorrow night into Thursday morning, and bridge icing could be more of an issue over there. This is mainly north of the Atlanta metro area. And, some snow is likely for the mountains of East Tennessee and West North Carolina.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain should develop again over South Alabama Friday, but for now it looks like most of the rain will remain south of U.S. 80, or south of a line from Demopolis to Montgomery to Opelika. As an Arctic front blows in here Friday night, a snow shower or two will be possible, but moisture will be very limited and it won’t be a big deal.
FRIGID WEEKEND: Birmingham will have a hard time getting above freezing on Saturday with a howling north wind that will drive wind chill values down into the single digits. Then, Sunday morning, we drop into the teens as the wind dies down. Colder valleys across North Alabama will be close to 10 degrees at daybreak Sunday. The GFS MOS is simply too warm.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The weather pattern will remain generally cold and unsettled for the rest of the month; another Gulf storm system will impact Alabama by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. We will deal with that system on a more specific basis by the end of this week.
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