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A FEW MORNING SHOWERS: After a couple of days with hardly any showers and storms around here, something is clearly different this morning since we have rain on radar in spots; actually some pretty decent showers and storms at 6:00… one cluster is around Kellyton and Alexander City, a smaller shower near Pell City, and some good rain near LaGrange, Georgia. These showers seem to be on the outflow of storms that died out last night as they approached Alabama from the northeast.
We will run with the standard summer forecast today (and, quite frankly, for about the next 7 days) with a partly sunny sky, and the risk of a few scattered showers and storms, with the best coverage of them coming this afternoon and early tonight. The high will remain in the low to mid 90s, which is just about what you expect in mid-July in Alabama.
REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: I honestly don’t see any reason to be cute and try to identify day to day changes in placement and coverage of airmass storms, since there is very little skill in that. The persistence forecast is the best rule through Sunday with no real change in temperatures. The chance of any one community or backyard getting wet each day will be in the 30 percent category, with most of the storms coming between 1:00 and 9:00 p.m. Of course, like we see now, you can’t totally rule out the risk of a morning shower in spots.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Seems like the GFS is a little drier next week, as opposed to the trend toward a higher coverage of showers and storms we have seen in recent days. So, we will just roll with the flow and keep that standard summer forecast going for now with highs in the low 90s. We do note the 00Z GFS builds a 5940 500 mb heat bubble over us as we begin August; first time that has shown up. Let’s hope it stays out west like most other runs have shown.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Bret looks pretty disorganized over the Atlantic; it will fizzle out by Friday as it moves northeast between Bermuda and the U.S. coast over cooler water. Another disturbance east of Bermuda has some chance of development, but there is no threat to any land area if it does get it’s act together. And, we note a couple of tropical waves in the low latitudes between South America and Africa. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
GULF COAST WEATHER: We expect a good 8 to 10 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend, with just a few widely scattered showers and storms around. Highs along the immediate coast will stay near 90, and the sea water temperatures are generally in the mid 80s from Panama City west to Gulf Shores.
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Busy day ahead… I am speaking at the American Advertising Federation chapter in Montgomery at midday… then on to Vance for a big celebration at Mercedes where I will be an emcee this afternoon. Due to the travel schedule, I won’t be able to produce an afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video, but I will post some notes. Have a great Wednesday and enjoy the day…
