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Rain is falling this morning, generally north of I-59 as I write this, with temperatures in the mid 30s in most places. There is still some chance that the precipitation could begin over Jackson, DeKalb, and Cherokee counties as light sleet and freezing rain with low dewpoints and some evaporational cooling, but no serious bridge icing is expected in that part of far Northeast Alabama.
We should note we have also received some reports of sleet over Northwest Alabama, and some bridge icing up in Lauderdale County.
Most communities will see about one-quarter of an inch of rain today; perhaps a few spots up to one-half inch.
TOMORROW: The GFS has introduced idea of clouds and some rain lingering into tomorrow, while the NAM is dry with sunshine returning. Our ongoing public forecast aligns with the NAM, but we can’t totally ignore the idea the GFS is throwing out with a disturbed southern stream. Lets take a look at the 12Z model runs before we make any changes.
ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY: The NAM is now showing a high of only 35 for Birmingham on Thursday; we have 39 in our forecast. One way or another, Thursday will be windy and cold with a new surge of Arctic air coming down the pike with a strong north wind. The wind chill will remain below freezing most of the day, even with sunshine in full force. Then, by Friday morning, a hard freeze is likely with a low somewhere between 17 and 22 for most Alabama communities.
WEEKEND PEEK: A warm front pushing northward will bring rain on Saturday, mainly from Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston northward (I-20 and points north). I don’t think it rains all day, however, and a warming trend will begin. We will keep a chance of showers going on Sunday, but again no wash-out. Sunday will be relatively mild, with a high in the mid 60s. The latest GFS MOS shows 67 for Birmingham on Sunday. That will feel like a heat wave.
NEXT WEEK: The unsettled weather continues with a chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday; the GFS hints the best rain day of those two will be on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain mild, with a high in the 60s on both days.
INTO THE LAND OF VOODOO: The 06Z GFS shows two strong systems moving through the Deep South; one on February 1, and another on February 4. Both show a big rain for Alabama, followed by a brief change to snow on the back side. In this active pattern, resolving weather beyond seven days is just about impossible, but at the same time, the idea of these kind of systems is very plausible considering the current state of the upper air over North America. We will see plenty of changes in model output as we get closer to February, but we will take any and all precipitation and welcome it.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.
There is a real chance I will not get the afternoon products out today like we usually have (the discussion and Weather Xtreme video) today due to a series of events related to the death of Bronner Burgess. In fact, I am about to head to WZZK this morning to be on the Rick and Bubba show in the 7:30 to 8:30 hour (I am usually on the show from my home). I saw the Burgess family last night and their faith is strong as they grieve the loss of their two year old son. I hope you can tune in this morning on your local Rick and Bubba affiliate.
