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RIGHT NOW: After a round of showers and storms earlier today, the radar is pretty quiet across North and Central Alabama this afternoon. Temperatures are well below average values for August, with readings only in the 80s at most spots at 3:00 due to lingering clouds.
TO THE WEST: Another MCS (mesoscale convective system) is rolling along… through parts of Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. This is quite a blessing to our friends there, that have been broiling all summer. Oklahoma City is reporting only 74 degrees at 3:00… quite a contrast to the triple digit heat they have been feeling for so long. Dallas/Fort Worth is only at 84 degrees at 3:00, so their long string of triple digit days is over.
The MCS is moving to the east, and we will have to consider the idea of that reaching Alabama tonight. But, with our rain-cooler air, there is also a chance it will fizzle out as it approaches. We will maintain the risk of a shower or storm tonight due to the potential MCS arrival, but we don’t expect any severe weather issues.
TOMORROW: Models continue to suggest tomorrow will be mostly dry; with a good supply of sunshine and only a small risk of a shower. The high should rise back into the low 90s.
OUR WEEKEND: A rather deep upper trough for summer will form over the East Coast by Monday, and that feature will push a rather strong surface front through our state over the weekend. It is beginning to look like the best chance of showers and storms along the front will be Saturday night into Sunday morning; by midday Sunday it sure looks like the bulk of the rain will be well to the south of I-20, and we will make that adjustment in the forecast.
SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for North Alabama Saturday evening as the storms move into the state, but they should weaken overnight as the air becomes more stable. As usual, the main risk will come from wet microbursts.
NEXT WEEK: A refreshing airmass drops into the state, with sunny days Monday and Tuesday along with lower humidity and cooler nights. Still looks like a decent chance some of the cooler spots across Northeast Alabama will reach the upper 50s early Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s. Moisture slowly returns over the latter half of the week.
TROPICS: We have twin waves in the far eastern Atlantic worth watching in coming days. The lead wave is forecast to move north of the Leeward Islands, and should recurve east of the Atlantic Coast of the U.S. We should mention this one has a good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Franklin in coming days.
The wave right behind that one seems to want to take a more low latitude track, but it remains to be seen if this one will enter the Caribbean, or jog northwest and recurve as well. We will keep a close eye on both of these in coming days as the tropics are finally beginning to heat up.
AT THE BEACH: Nothing out of the ordinary along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. We are still projecting 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day with a few scattered showers and storms. The high will be close to 90 on the immediate coast, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is 89 degrees.
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