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I can only guess that most people would like to see a break in the heat and humidity and that’s just what we are going to get. Perhaps that is the good news but along with that is the bad news that this break will not last long. But we can enjoy break knowing that Fall is not that far off.
Water vapor imagery from the GOES satellites indicates that drier air is already filtering into Central Alabama. The drier air is primarily aloft this morning but much drier surface air with dew points in the lower 60s is poised in Missouri to come our way today and tonight. This air coming our way thanks to an upper level trough over the eastern half of the country which is producing a northwesterly flow from the Central Plains into the Southeast US. This means drier and slightly cooler air for us through mid-week, but it also means no showers.
The GFS continued to show some shower potential across Central Alabama for today, but I think the drier air aloft will probably keep us dry with showers more likely across South Alabama. With the sunshine, I expect to see us with highs in the lower 90s today.
The drier air should arrive overnight so that by Monday morning we’ll see lows in the upper 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday we’ll dip into the mid 60s before the warmth returns on Thursday and into the weekend. Wednesday will also see moisture returning, but I think we stay dry. Thursday into the weekend sees the return of showers to the forecast though I expect them to be widely scattered.
Another front is poised to come our way on Monday, a week from tomorrow. I don’t think that front will actually make it to Central Alabama.
Tropics are a bit more active with another depression on the charts. However, none of the three areas under scrutiny poses any threat to land other than Bermuda.
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had a slight risk outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region from just south of New York City to Savannah and extending westward to West Virginia. Day 2 sees the main outlook in the Dakotas.
Don’t put the shorts away just yet. Peeking into voodoo country the GFS suggests the return of the big ridge so we probably have not seen the last of the heat just yet.
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-Brian-
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