MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED…NERN LA…SERN AR…NRN/CENTRAL MS…NRN/CENTRAL AL…NWRN GA…SRN MIDDLE TN
A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MS/AL AND GA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL ALTHROUGH 06Z.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF SHV ENEWD TO NORTH OF JAN NEWD TO NEAR HSV. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS /PER THE 00Z BNA/BHM SOUNDING/ WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION RATES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADDITION…THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER /CENTERED NEAR 800 MB/ WILL SUPPORT SLEET
OVER AL/SRN MIDDLE TN AND NWRN GA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. SEVERAL MORE HRS OF PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THIS DRY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS MS/AL. WHERE THE STRONGEST WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS…COUPLED WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY…MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS/CENTRAL AL…WITH HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 0.10 IN. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS PROGRESSES
ENEWD…FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END OVER NERN LA/SERN AR BY 03Z. AS SATURATION OCCURS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS…WET-BULB COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE ACROSS MS/AL THROUGH 06Z.
..CROSBIE.. 01/26/2008
