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Two good looking storm systems will impact Alabama this week… lets take em one at a time….
NUMBER ONE: The first thing you will notice later today is the wind; the pressure gradient really tightens up this afternoon, and southwest winds could gust to 35 mph at times. Yet another reason I don’t wear a toupee. A few showers could break out this afternoon, but the main band of showers and thunderstorms will come from about 6:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m.
SPC has a pretty good chunk of North Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather. Not sure about that due to the lack of instability; the highest surface based CAPE advertised by the NAM is a whopping 3.2 j/kg! Of course, you can find higher MLCAPE and MUCAPE values, but that simply means the storms tonight will be mostly elevated. I think what we will see is a low topped line of elevated storms with little lightning. But, that line will feature lots of wind; maybe a few spots getting gusts to over 50 mph when they blow through here.
I still think we can forecast about one-half inch of rain tonight; the NAM prints 0.39″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is a little wetter with 0.58″ for Birmingham.
We will be in between the two storms tomorrow; it will be a sunny and cool day. We are forecasting a high of only 50 despite a sunny day; considering the amount of cold air up north that will be entrained in the system, that might be a little too warm. We should be a little below freezing by late tomorrow night and early Thursday.
STORM NUMBER TWO: You have to wonder how much the air will modify on Thursday as we begin the day in the low 30s. Still, this system Thursday is very dynamic, and it will be interesting to watch as south winds increase and do their best to bring higher dewpoints up this way. I don’t think they can make it (dewpoints of 55 or greater), however, so once again the lack os surface based instability will really hold down any major severe weather threat. But with such a strong, negative tilt 500 mb short wave, you have to keep your eye on the ball (or the radar, in this case).
Looks like the bulk of the rain and storms with our second system will come in here from 6:00 p.m. Thursday through 3:00 a.m. Friday. This one should be wetter, with about one inch of rain likely. So, between the two systems, rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely statewide from my perspective. The guys at HPC are a little more aggressive, however, and suggest some spots getting more that two inches.
Sunshine returns on Friday with another shot of colder air; looks like we hold in the 40s all day with a chilly north wind.
THE WEEKEND: Still looks pretty nice with a high around 60 on both Saturday and Sunday. Mornings will be chilly. Moisture will begin to return on Sunday, but the day still looks dry here.
NEXT WEEK: We could really see some good rain totals next week if the 06Z GFS is correct; a front moves into Alabama on Tuesday and becomes stationary with a southwest flow aloft. Then, a series of waves moves along the front, which would mean periods of rain Tuesday through Thursday.
STORM ALERT 2008 OPENS THURSDAY: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama begins this week! Our first stop will at Oak Grove High School Thursday at 7:00; from there will have shows in Anniston, Northport, Lineville, and Moody. See the details on this year’s show, and the schedule here. We hope to see you along the way!
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I am off to Calhoun County this morning; I will be speaking at Piedmont Middle School. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
