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As expected, winds have ramped up across Alabama this afternoon. Huntsville is gusting to 36 mph at 2:00… gusts to 30 mph are being reported at Birmingham. I would imagine the ridge tops have seen winds over 40 mph at times as the pressure gradient continues to tighten.
On the back side of the storm, winds have gusted to 54 mph at DFW Airport in Texas.
And, what a cold front in Missouri. At 1:00 CDT, St. Louis was reporting a balmy 65 degrees, while only about 150 miles away, Maryville, Missouri was at 9 degrees with snow falling.
Needless to say, the maps are a great study this afternoon.
THE ALABAMA STORY: We still expect the bulk of the showers tonight from around 6:00 p.m. through 3:00 a.m., but showers continue to increase over West Alabama as I write this. There will be a few thunderstorms involved, but I am not bullish at all on severe weather here in Alabama. We do note the tornado watch from the Mississippi Delta up into Central Illinois, and a slight risk of severe weather for parts of North and West Alabama for tonight from SPC, but with no surface based CAPE, it is hard to get excited about a big severe weather event. Classic early season system with great dynamics, but lousy thermodynamics.
A band of showers will move through Alabama tonight along the cold front, and winds will be gusty. But, I doubt if we see that much lightning as the convection should be elevated. The 12Z NAM is printing 0.31″ for Birmingham tonight, while the GFS is a little wetter with 0.57″. We figure about one-half inch of rain is the best forecast for tonight.
The rain will end late tonight, and colder air blows in here during the pre-dawn hours. Tomorrow will be a sunny day, but a cool day with a high only in the upper 40s in most places.
SECOND GO ROUND: Storm number two will impact Alabama Thursday night. We will begin the day Thursday down in the low 30s (dewpoints will be in the 20s then), so it is really going to be difficult to get high dewpoints and unstable air up here during the day. The main round of showers and storms with this intense short wave will come from about 3:00 p.m. Thursday until 3:00 a.m. Friday. Looks like about one inch of rain with this system, and some potential for strong storms. If this were April, I would really be concerned about a major tornado outbreak. But, this is January and the lack of instability once again will limit any severe weather potential.
Cooler and drier air returns to Alabama on Friday; looks like we will hold in the 40s through the day with a cool breeze and a clearing sky.
WEEKEND PEEK: The weekend still looks great with a high around 60 on Saturday and Sunday along with chilly nights. Moisture will begin to return Sunday, but the day will be dry.
NEXT WEEK: Sure looks wet at this point. A cold front will bring a chance of showers by Monday evening, and as that front becomes parallel to the upper air flow, it should stall somewhere over Alabama, and occasional waves on the front will bring periods of rain through mid-week. Looks like it could be a nice setup for some beneficial rain for the state.
STORM ALERT 2008: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama begins this week! Our first stop will at Oak Grove High School on Thursday at 7:00; from there will have shows in Anniston, Northport, Lineville, and Moody. See the details on this year’s show, and the schedule here. We hope to see you along the way!
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I had a great time seeing the 6th grade today at Piedmont Middle School…. be looking for those kids on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… and the great Alabama weather legend J.B. Elliott will keep the blog updated with fresh information on weather in coming hours…
