An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion.. but here are the important bullet points:
*Looks like very little rain here tonight and tomorrow. Maybe a few isolated showers, but nothing more than that.
*We have a chance of breaking the record high tomorrow…76 in 1927 (for Birmingham). Tomorrow will be a warm and windy day with a mix of sun and clouds. Again, very little rain during the day.
*The greatest risk of severe weather in Alabama will come from 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Wednesday.
*The best mix of instability and shear will be over the northwest part of the state, where SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather. Severe storms will fire up tomorrow afternoon over North Mississippi, West Tennessee, and Arkansas… those storms will develop eastward into Northwest Alabama by the evening hours. Those storms could produce isolated tornadoes.
*Instability values are a little higher on the 12Z model runs, but the highest values (over 500 j/kg) are west of I-65; the values really drop off over East Alabama tomorrow night.
*A line of storms, with the potential primarily for damaging straight line winds, will move through Alabama late tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. The storms should weaken as they move east of I-65 after midnight tomorrow night, but they still could be severe in spots to the Georgia border.
*Rain totals of one to two inches are likely tomorrow night.
Really, the most dangerous weather tomorrow will be over Mississippi, West Tennessee, Arkansas, and the northeast part of Louisiana; surface based CAPE values over there could exceed 1,500 j/kg. Some long track tornadoes will be possible, and an upgrade to a high severe weather risk is sure not out of the question. And, of course, once the action begins to the west, that will give us a much better look at how it will impact Alabama tomorrow night.
WEDNESDAY: Rain ends during the morning, and temperatures fall into the 40s with a chilly northwest wind.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: At this point our weather looks cool and dry during these four days. An upper trough will pass through Thursday night and Friday, but little moisture means no significant chance of rain. Highs will be generally in the 50s, with lows in the 30s.
LONG RANGE: No sign of any Arctic shots in the Feb 11-20 time frame; the upper air pattern is mostly zonal with occasional waves impacting Alabama.
STORM ALERT 2008: We will be in Anniston Thursday night at the City Meeting Center at 7:00… get there early for a good seat! You can see some pictures from our first stop at Oak Grove High School (last Thursday) here. I hope to see you in Anniston Thursday night.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will have a new show posted by 10:00 tonight…
