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The models continue their trend toward a slower solution for the big storm system to the west, and accordingly the moderate severe weather for this afternoon and tonight has been pulled westward, out of Alabama. You can see the SPC outlook, along with all of the associated graphics with this discussion on the video…
Lets break it down on a timeline:
TODAY: Record warmth is the story today; afternoon highs will be in the 75 to 80 degree range with an increasing south wind, perhaps gusting to 30 mph at times this afternoon. It sure won’t “feel right” today considering that this is early February. I still believe the day will be generally dry; all of the really active weather will remain west of Alabama. A few isolated showers or storms could fire up late this afternoon over the far western part of the state, considering that we might reach the convective temperature (almost like a summer afternoon), but those should be few and far between.
TONIGHT: While the main convective band stays west of Alabama through at least midnight, we will have to watch for any discreet supercell storms that fire ahead of the line in the 6:00 p.m. to 12:00 midnight time frame over West Alabama (mainly west of I-65). Any storms that do fire up over the western side of the state during this 6 hour period could go into rotation, and isolated tornadoes are possible. East Alabama should remain dry through midnight.
AFTER MIDNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING: It sure looks like our main squall line will blow through here between 3:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. tomorrow, with the potential for damaging straight line winds within the line, and perhaps a small tornado or two. It is a good thing that the line will arrive during the early morning hours; the air tends to be more stable. Sure beats this thing coming through at 6:00 in the evening. But, having said that, severe weather can happen early in the morning, and you can see from the video that the various severe weather parameters still look very impressive. We will be burning the midnight oil tonight, as the event will unfold overnight and well into the morning tomorrow.
WEDNESDAY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON: The storms should sweep out of Alabama by midday tomorrow, and temperatures should begin to fall tomorrow afternoon in the wake of the storms. We should be close to freezing by daybreak Thursday.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The weather looks cool and dry during this four day period. Highs will be generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s, but a pretty good shot of colder air arrives Sunday that should keep highs in the mid to upper 40s.
VOODOO: The GFS shows the next rain event one week from today, around February 12. Even some hint of some snow on the northern periphery of that one; lets get through the event tonight and tomorrow and then we can focus on that one.
STORM ALERT 2008: We will see you Thursday night at the Anniston City Meeting center; doors open at 5:00… the show begins at 7:00. Come early for a good seat!
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. This week’s new episode is now available… scroll down for show notes.
I will be speaking to the senior adults today at Briarwood Presbyterian Church; then I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. J.B. and the gang will have updates throughout the day.
