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After an absolutely fabulous weather day yesterday, we’re in for another one today. All of this great Fall weather thanks to the closed low over the Mid-Atlantic states which is producing a strong northerly flow over the middle of the country. That northerly flow is ushering in the coolest weather we’ve seen since about the middle of May. In fact, some locations across the northeast sections of Alabama were in the upper 30s this morning.
The closed low will gradually slide eastward over the next couple of days as it is replaced by a ridge. The ridge will keep us dry through next weekend acting as a shield for the storms developing at the end of the week off to the west. As the trough moves away and the ridge slides into place, watch temperatures climb nicely so that we reach lows in the 50s and highs in the lower 80s by the end of the week.
One small forecast challenge coming about Thursday will be the development of the wedge or cold air damming. With the center of the surface high over New York and Pennsylvania, the flow around the Appalachians will create the wedge. The forecast challenge is how much influence that will have on temperatures. Right now I suspect it will be minimal as it knocks only a couple of degrees off the highs. But clouds and moisture from the east will have to be watched, too.
The upper ridge holds strong into the weekend promising another mild Fall weekend.
Ophelia and Philippe remain well out in the Atlantic. Ophelia will give Newfoundland a glancing blow on Monday but the center of the storm is expected to remain over the water. And it should be traveling fairly quickly so it won’t affect Newfoundland long.
The GFS suggests changes in week 2 with potential for some storms around mid October, but that is a long way out for any specifics.
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Don’t forget WeatherFest at the McWane Science Center on October 15th, the kickoff to the National Weather Association’s national conference being held at the Wynfrey Hotel from the 16th to the 20th. Lots of names in the field of meteorology will be here delivering papers on a variety of topics. I hope you can join us. James should have the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing Monday morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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