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In spite of the clouds, a warm southerly breeze is keeping things very mild – downright warm – over the Southeast US. Temperatures this morning across Central Alabama are much more typical of highs for this time of year – not the lows. In fact, we should reach into the lower and mid 70s for highs which is a good 10 to 12 degrees above our typical highs for this time of November. So clouds will stick around through Tuesday before a cold front makes its way through Central Alabama.
In the upper atmosphere, a strong trough is expected to come out of the southern Rockies on Tuesday and drag the front through the area. With the strong southwesterly fetch in place ahead of this trough along with the warm southerly flow around the surface high to our east, we should moisten up the atmosphere very well setting the stage for a line of thunderstorms to move through Central Alabama on Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is some risk that we could see severe thunderstorms, too, with CAPE values expected to reach values between 1,000 and 1,500 joules per kilogram. Timing also appears to be somewhat favorable with the front coming through close to the maximum heating of the afternoon on Tuesday. There’s still some uncertainty, and SPC notes that timing is one of the main issues. But it certainly appears likely that we will have some threat from severe storms including the potential for isolated tornadoes. Be sure to stick with us here at the Blog for the latest information as we watch this system evolve.
Wednesday should see improving weather along with a fairly sharp cool down. With the trough out of the picture, we see a ridge move over the area bringing us a great Thanksgiving Day and a good Black Friday, too. But there is another trough approaching late Friday and Saturday that promises yet another cold front, some more rain, and some much colder days for next weekend.
Rainfall through the event Tuesday will vary from one half to one inch with the potential for some locations to get near 2 inches in the stronger storms.
Tropics are relatively quiet with only one area under the watchful eye of the NHC forecasters. And it is well out at sea, so no threat to any land areas.
Voodoo country has done some changing. While it looks like we will start December on a chilly note, the long range progs suggest a more zonal flow by the 6th of December. This would mean a considerably shorter cold spell for early December.
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Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. James Spann should be back bright and early Monday morning with the next edition. I hope you have a wonderful day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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