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All eyes will be on the big storm over the Southwest U.S. in coming days. Ahead of the storm, high clouds will move over Alabama at times today and tomorrow, but the weather remains dry. The models have backed off on the idea of any cooling tomorrow; both the GFS and the NAM are now suggesting highs in the low 60s today, and mid 60s tomorrow, so we will probably bump up afternoon highs a bit for tomorrow on our afternoon forecast package if the 12Z runs continue this trend. A few showers could break out tomorrow night as a WAA pattern continues over Alabama along with isentropic lift. But, the big show comes during the day Sunday.
TO THE WEST: SPC has now defined a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms for Southeast Texas tomorrow, including Houston. There is a slight risk tomorrow all the way from Central Texas to Southwest Mississippi.
THE SUNDAY SITUATION: The models continue to place the surface low farther to the north, and phasing of the northern and southern stream troughs begins tomorrow night. All of this means that we will be looking at a pretty mean squall line that will race across Alabama Sunday afternoon. There will be a high degree of vertical shear in place, so any storms ahead of the line could rotate. Of course, with the line itself the primary threat will come from damaging straight line winds.
SPC maintains a severe weather risk over the southern half of Alabama, primarily south of I-20. This is where instability will be sufficient for organized severe storms; very little CAPE shows up over the northern third of Alabama for now. Looks like the primary risk of severe weather will come from 12:00 until 6:00 p.m. Sunday, but we do note the GFS is faster and brings the storms into West Alabama Sunday morning. We will watch the 12Z model output and make adjustments as needed.
Once again, this is a great time for all churches to review their severe weather plan; be sure your NOAA Weather Radio receiver is in good working order, and have a plan on moving people in the church to lower level, small rooms near the middle of the building. We hope no severe weather happens on Sunday, but it is always best to be prepared.
COLD SHOT: Another blast of cold air rolls in here early next week; we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s on Monday, and a hard freeze is likely at daybreak Tuesday. The risk of flurries has diminished a bit with the surface low now showing up so far north.
Looks like the next rain event will come at the end of next week, and once again, the pattern stays active at least through the rest of February.
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I will be speaking at Gwin Elementary in Hoover today… then I will head into the office and the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
