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All eyes will be on the big storm developing over the Southwest U.S. over the weekend. That system will move through Texas tomorrow, and will ultimately impact Alabama on Sunday…
RIGHT NOW: We do note a few echoes on radar over the northern third of the state, so a few sprinkles are possible tonight and tomorrow, but we believe most of Alabama will remain dry with broken clouds overhead.
The latest model guidance is coming in much warmer tomorrow… the GFS and the NAM now suggest we will rise into the upper 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. Should be a nice day for anything outdoors, but enjoy it because that won’t be the case on Sunday and Monday.
SUNDAY: The 12Z model runs are trending toward a more unstable airmass on Sunday, confirming our idea that severe storms will be a problem by the afternoon hours. The NAM runs the surface based CAPE to around 500 j/kg at Birmingham during the mid-afternoon hours, along with very high helicity values (0 to 3 km helicity is up to 429 on the 12Z run!). With a dynamic, phased upper trough approaching, and a deepening surface low to the north, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across Alabama, mainly in the 12:00 to 7:00 p.m. time frame. The GFS hints that the weather problems could begin Sunday morning, but the NAM is slower, and probably correct since the big upper low south of Phoenix right now won’t be in any big hurry to move out.
Any storms out ahead of the main line could show signs of rotation, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. And, with the main squall line, the primary threat will come from damaging straight line winds. Once again, we suggest that all Alabama churches check their NOAA Weather Radio receiver to be sure it is in good working order, and review your severe weather action plan just in case we do get into a severe weather situation.
MONDAY: We go into the deep freeze for a day. The GFS MOS suggests the high in Birmingham on Monday will be 53, and that looks at least ten degrees too warm, considering the nature of the airmass coming down this way and the snow pack up north. The model was horrible with temperatures on Wednesday of this week, and will probably be dead wrong on Monday of next week as well. The chance of morning flurries has diminished with the surface low so far north. A hard freeze is likely by Monday night and early Tuesday.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: We will begin to warm up again Tuesday afternoon, and another rain event is likely by the end of next week. Way too early to be specific, but looks like the best chance of showers and storms could come Friday night and Saturday (February 22-23).
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
STORM ALERT 2008: Our next show on the Storm Alert 2008 tour will be in Clay County, at Lineville High School next Thursday night at 7:00. We hope to see you there!
I had a great time speaking to the 4th graders at Gwin Elementary today… look for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted early Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the updates here over the weekend. Check the blog often for the latest on the severe weather threat on Sunday. Have a great weekend!
