The models have definitely come in looking more aggressive for a severe weather event in Alabama tomorrow, including parts of north Alabama, also.
Quickly, the NAM shows a 70 knot jet at 850 mb moving into the western part of Alabama by morning, transporting Gulf moisture into the state very quickly. This allows CAPE values up to 1000 J/kg as far north as BHM tomorrow, with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values over 300 m2/s2. If the NAM is right, there could be a significant outbreak of severe weather (including some tornadoes) in Alabama tomorrow. It looks worse now than earlier. The GFS and other models are still coming in right now.
For those who will be awake and checking the weather, I’ll post a more complete analysis, along with the new SPC outlook (which will probably include a moderate risk for BHM), around 1230 am.
Brian and I will be headed out in the Storm Chaser tomorrow morning.
