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The first of two rounds of potentially severe weather is underway this morning. I always find it difficult to do a Weather Xtreme Video in the midst of ongoing strong storms because of the rapidly changing nature of the situation. So be sure to stay tuned to the Blog for the latest updates.
A squall line – QLCS for the modern folks – is ongoing and will traverse much of Central Alabama during the morning and afternoon. The NWS in Birmingham has already begun clearing the tornado watch for some counties northwest of Birmingham that is in effect until noon. The instability and shear values are present in sufficient quantities to warrant a tornado watch, but so far, knock on wood, there have only been reports of hail. And most of those hail reports have been around 1 inch or less. Additional thunderstorms were developing ahead of the main squall line, and those will need to be watched for severe development.
By mid afternoon or so, the line of storms should be exiting Central Alabama along with the upper air short wave. This should bring a temporary end to the rain and storms for tonight and much of Sunday. However, on Sunday a strong short wave comes out of the Rockies and will go negative tilt Sunday night (please note, I erroneously referred to it as a positive tilt in the video). This brings another threat for severe weather to the Southeast most likely early Monday morning. Interesting to note that the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement with the timing and positioning of this weather system. The GFS is slightly deeper on the surface low strength.
With a fast flow, the trough moves out quickly ending the rain/storms Monday morning. CAPE values are forecast to be around 1000 j/kg around 3 am Monday, so there is the risk that another squall line will occur with embedded severe storms.
The weather calms down and clears out for the middle of the week as the southern US remains in a relatively mild pattern. The pattern does not show signs of changing much with a closed low positioned over northern Mexico. The closed low comes out as it weakens on Saturday promising us some more wet weather for next weekend. And if the GFS has the correct solution, it could mean a fairly significant winter storm event for the Central US.
Looking further out, the GFS trends toward a colder pattern as we enter February.
Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…
| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
Be safe in the storms today. Stay with us here for the latest updates. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so Sunday morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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