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You know everything is OK with the world when J.B. writes one of his “Weather By The Numbers” posts here on the blog. Good stuff.
RIGHT NOW: Sunshine is in good supply statewide, and the temperature has reached 60 degrees in Birmingham. Warmest spots at 2:00 were Dothan and Ozark with 71 degrees.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: SPC has expanded their slight severe weather risk for late tonight and early tomorrow to include much of Central and West Alabama, along with most of Mississippi, and adjacent parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Looks like our prime window for showers and storms here in Alabama will come from 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon tomorrow, not exactly a time of day when you expect a big severe weather event.
But, there will be some instability (we have seen some model surface based CAPE values near 500 over West Alabama during the pre-dawn hours), along with good 0 to 3 km helicity. And, a strong upper trough will support a deepening surface low north of Alabama. So, we will have to watch for the possibility of strong to severe storms tomorrow morning; might be a rough morning drive period with the storms moving through as we begin the work day.
While the guys at HPC are showing rain totals of three-quarters to one inch across Alabama tomorrow morning, the NAM extraction shows only 0.23″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is printing 0.38″. We figure most spots will see somewhere between one-quarter and one-half inch of rain.
MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE RAIN: We should begin the day tomorrow morning in the 50s, but we expect temperatures to fall into the 40s and stay there during the rest of the day with a rather icy northwest wind. We might even see a few snow flurries tomorrow night as the upper trough deepens right over Alabama. The best chance of those will be north of Birmingham.
Wednesday will be another cold day, but the sky will become mostly sunny. We will begin the day in the 20s, with a high only in the low to mid 40s Wednesday afternoon. We will have another freeze by daybreak Thursday.
END OF THE WEEK RAIN: The 12Z GFS run continues the idea of another quick moving band of showers and thunderstorms moving through Alabama Friday night. Looks like the best chance of rain with this system will come from about 6:00 p.m. Friday through 6:00 a.m. Saturday. Severe weather potential looks rather low, and rainfall should be one-half inch or less due to the fast movement of the showers and storms.
WEEKEND PEEK: The sky should clear on Saturday, and Sunday promises to be a mostly sunny day. The GFS shows 62 on Saturday, and 68 on Sunday. Sounds good here.
NEXT WEEK: A major storm system will impact Alabama early next week, but it will be very difficult to nail down details this far in advance. The latest GFS run shows a healthy band of showers and storms on Monday, followed by clearing Tuesday. Other runs have suggested a cut-off upper level low, which could keep the weather wet through Tuesday.
INTO THE LAND OF VOODOO: The wave train will continue deep into March, with the promise of several good rain producers for Alabama. And, expect at least one or two severe weather threats along the way. It is that time of the year, you know.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new show tonight; it should be posted by 10:00 p.m. or so.
STORM ALERT 2008: The last show of the year is tomorrow night at Bethel Baptist Church on U.S. 411 in Moody; their building was destroyed by a tornado on April 8, 1998. The doors open at 5:00; the show begins at 7:00. We hope to see you there!
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.
I had a great time seeing the 4th graders today at South Lamar School in Millport… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
