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Weather geeks are buzzing about the 12Z model runs… about weather events five to six days down the road. But, before we get there…
TONIGHT: Cold is the word. The great Alabama weather legend, J.B. Elliott, in his afternoon forecast is predicting an average low of 26 degrees early tomorrow morning. Some of the colder valleys could be close to 20 where the sky is clear and the wind is light.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: We warm into the mid 50s tomorrow, and 60 is likely by Friday afternoon. We will still forecast a chance of showers late Friday afternoon and Friday night thanks to a passing cold front, but this should not be a major rain producer with the upper support far to the north of here, and limited moisture. Most spots should get only a quarter of an inch of rain. The weekend looks very nice; Saturday should be a sunny day with a high in the mid 60s; we will be close to 70 by Sunday with a partly sunny sky.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS continues the idea of a band of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through our state late Monday and Monday night, followed by a much colder day Tuesday. The idea of a deep, cold core upper air low over Alabama is back on the board; dynamic cooling from this feature, along with a deepening surface low forming near the Georgia/South Carolina border, has the potential to bring some snow or snow showers to parts of Alabama Tuesday if the model is correct. And, quite frankly, this is not in voodoo land since the event is within seven days.
But, the cold saying is “cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe”. Strange things happen with those features, and they sure are hard to predict five days in advance. Lets just sit back and watch model trends in coming days. One way or another, it looks like a very interesting two day period (Monday-Tuesday). We also note SPC has all of Alabama in a severe weather risk for late Monday and Monday night.
INTO THE LAND OF VOODOO: The 12Z GFS continues the idea of another potential winter storm threat for parts of the Deep South around March 7, but it has backed off on the intensity. No way of resolving this feature until we get the March 3-4 system out of here.
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It was a wild morning… I judged a biscuit bake-off with Rick and Bubba at a local McDonalds… we had a great time. I think there will be some video of this event on ABC 33/40 News tonight… so be watching for it. And, the 6th graders from Haleyville will be on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News today at 5:00. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!