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Thanks to everyone for the great discussion on the severe weather warning process (see the post below this one). Some excellent points, and we would love to hear from you. This conversation is good for all of us as we work to make the system better.
MOVING ON: Before we deal with events next week… lets talk short term weather…
We begin the day with a hard freeze; some early morning temperatures from our team of Skywatchers include 18 at Hokes Bluff and Concord, and 19 at Hamilton and Reece City. J.B. will run down a list of lows later this morning.
We begin to warm up nicely today, with most places reaching the low to mid 50s this afternoon under a sunny sky. Clouds begin to return tomorrow in advance of a cold front trailing from an Alberta clipper to the north of Alabama. That front will bring a quick round of showers tomorrow night; this won’t be a big rain event as we expect amounts to be around one-quarter of an inch of less. The 00Z NAM is printing 0.19″ for Birmingham, and that seems about right. The best chance of those showers will come from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow until 2:00 a.m. Saturday.
NICE WEEKEND: Looks like a great weekend ahead; a sunny sky on Saturday with a high in the low to mid 60s, followed by partly sunny weather on Sunday with a high near 70.
SEVERE WEATHER/SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK: No doubt a major weather system will impact Alabama early next week. Nailing down the details is hard to do this far in advance. A deep, cold core upper low will begin to evolve over Alabama Monday night with a strong wind field at the surface and aloft. The key to the severe weather risk is the placement of the surface low. The latest GFS run in hand (the 06Z run) places a deepening (998 mb) surface low near Huntsville at midnight Monday night. This would suggest the best chance of severe storms would along and south of I-20, where storms could produce damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes.
The 06Z GFS moves this deep low almost due north on Tuesday, meaning much colder air for Alabama, and with dynamic cooling from the cold core the chance of snow showers. But, with this setup there could be no serious risk of any accumulating snow here. But, the ECMWF shows a different solution, with the surface low near Columbus, GA (at the same time the GFS has the low near Indianapolis!). The ECMWF idea means the best chance of severe weather over the southern quarter of Alabama, but with a better chance of snow for North Alabama Tuesday morning.
For now, we will mention a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night, followed by a chance of snow showers on Tuesday. We will fine tune this as we go along in coming days. We will have much better clarity after Friday night’s clipper is out of here.
LATE NEXT WEEK: There remains some potential for another storm event toward the end of next week; the 06Z GFS develops a deep surface low down in the central Gulf of Mexico, well to the south of Alabama, on Friday March 7. You know we have to get the early week system out of here before we can really feel good about the end of the week system.
VOODOO LAND: All we can say is that the weather continues to look active through much of March. The wave train remains in business. On the positive side, some good rain events are likely. But, there will probably be a severe weather threat or two along the way.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.
I will be headed down into Marengo County this morning… I will be speaking to the kids at Linden Elementary School. That will be a really fun road trip. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon!
