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An Alberta clipper will bring some clouds to Alabama tomorrow, and a chance of showers tomorrow night. Still looks like our best chance of showers will come from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through 3:00 a.m. Saturday. The 12Z run of the NAM prints only 0.18″ of rain for Birmingham tomorrow night, and they looks pretty good to me. Bottom line is that this won’t be a big rain event.
THE WEEKEND looks great. Lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday; we will rise into the low to mid 60s on Saturday, and we will be very close to 70 degrees on Sunday.
SEVERE WEATHER/SNOW THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK: No real change in the 12Z run of the GFS. It suggests a good chance of strong to severe thunderstorms over Alabama, especially for areas along and south of I-20, late Monday afternoon and Monday night. SPC has all of Alabama in the Day 5 severe weather outlook, and they indicate it could be a significant event. They are right if the models verify. Excellent dynamics and thermodynamics this time. At this early stage of the game, it looks like the prime severe weather threat will be from 4:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight Monday. This looks like an event that should bring one to two inches of rain statewide.
With a deep, cold core upper low over Alabama Tuesday, dynamic cooling and the associated instability will bring the chance of snow to Alabama. The 12Z GFS continues to suggest the day will have convective type snow showers, as opposed to a steady snow event. The best chance of accumulating snow will be over Northeast Alabama, but all of this could change in coming days as we get a better look at the system. The bottom line is that we should be ready for severe thunderstorms (along with the possibility of damaging wind and isolated tornadoes) late Monday and Monday night, and sharply colder weather on Tuesday with a chance of snow showers.
LATE NEXT WEEK: Another system will impact Alabama late next week; this could bring a chance of rain Thursday night, possibly changing to snow Friday morning before ending. But, this is in voodoo land for now, and we won’t have too much confidence in a specific solution until we get the first storm system (early in the week) out of here. Stay tuned.
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I had a great time down in Linden today… be looking for those kids on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 on the KIDCAM. I will probably write about the trip tonight here on the blog and maybe share some pictures; as you know I take the roads less traveled, and today was a perfect opportunity to do just that. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
