I’ve reviewed the latest models, and next week may be the most interesting week we’ve had weatherwise in a long time.
On Monday, a strong upper-level storm will approach Alabama, with a strong cold front. Models are still not consistent with the placement of the surface low. Morning NAM, Canadian, and European place low to our west on Monday, bringing a threat for severe weather to north and central Alabama late Monday. The GFS and NOGAPS are a little farther east with the low, which may confine the severe weather threat to areas south of I-20, or maybe even the Gulf Coast. This is something to watch. SPC has placed Alabama in its outlook area for severe weather on Monday.
The GFS allows very cold air to pour in on Tuesday, a lot of it dynamically driven by the upward motion in the system. This model shows temperatures in the low to mid 30s all day Tuedsay, with wind chills 15-20 at times. The other models do not look quite as aggressive with the cold air on Tuesday, but either way it should be a cloudy, cold, windy day. There will be some wrap around moisture, so we may see a few snow showers Tuesday, but at this time it looks like the best chance for accumulating snow will be to our NW.
One thing looks pretty likely…another heavy rain event Monday night, with 1-2″ over a large part of Alabama. That drought keeps on shrinking and weakening.
Then, there’s the late week storm. Models show cold air most of the week, then a shot of Arctic air working south by Thursday and Friday. The GFS develops a surface low over the Gulf and overrunning precipitation in central Alabama Thursday evening. Right now, it shows enough warm air aloft to cause freezing rain…and a lot of it. I think this is unlikely…it’s almost a week away, and freezing rain requires very precise temperature profiles. But, some kind of wintry precipitation next Thursday night is possible.
These systems are all very dynamic, and this makes it a little harder to predict the details. With Monday’s severe weather, we’re talking about a low that won’t even form for days, and a track 100 miles east or west could make a big difference in who gets severe weather. And with the late week snow/ice chance, that’s a long way out, and it doesn’t usually snow significantly in Alabama anyway.
Needless to say, an interesting time to be a meteorologist!
