Anytime we mention a chance of snow, it tends to stir up more emotion on this blog that the Alabama/Auburn rivalry. Speculation runs rampant; some say it “never snows in Alabama anymore”, to those who say “this will be worse than the Blizzard of 93”. Emotions run high for some reason… but the weather is going to do what it wants, no matter what we say, you say, or computer models say. It is our job to use a combination of experience, climatology, NWP (numerical weather prediction, or model output), and observations using satellite, surface, and upper air data. What you read here is always what we genuinely think will happen.
LATE THINKING: As J.B. posted below, the 00Z NAM looks good for a more aggressive snow forecast for the northern half of Alabama. But, you don’t change a forecast based on one model run. Lets take a look at the GFS/WRF/ECMWF in the next couple of hours.
Here is the late thinking from the Birmingham NWS office, just off our internal IM conference:
“21z sref and 00z nam moving surface low closer to the gfs position across south and east central alabama. this may allow colder air to ooze into northwest alabama sooner than previous thought. additionally, nam has more moisture available while lift is still in place. 00z nam soundings indicate the distinct possibility of showery precip…modulating intensity. therefore…it looks like light snow accumulation may occur with this system. particularly interested in marion/lamar/winston counties. at this point…a dusting may occur as far south as i-20 west to east friday evening through saturday midday. areas farther northwest may receive up to an inch. will wait for the gfs…but only change in products anticipated at this time will be change the wording in the hwo. watches are only issued for more than two inches in 12 hrs. ground is quite warm but showery burst can stick snow quickly. for our southern partners…a few strong to severe storms are possible friday morning as the first wave rides along the front. this will mainly be confined to pike and barbour counties. but like we say many times…the exact track of the low/waves will make all the difference. a 50 mile shift could change things either way. -linhares”
Sure looks like more fun and games ahead. Stay tuned…
