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ON THE MAPS: You can clearly see a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico on satellite images this morning… the swirl south of Mobile Bay is moving north, and will pull deeper tropical moisture northward into Alabama over the next 24 hours. Showers and storms will increase today over Southwest Alabama, but up this way the day will still be generally dry with only isolated showers this afternoon. Once again the high will be in the 87 to 90 degree range.
TOMORROW: This is the one day this week with a decent shot at getting some rain in here. We will forecast a good chance of showers and thunderstorms statewide. The heaviest and most widespread rain will be in areas south and west of Birmingham, but even the northeast counties should see at least a few showers. The NAM is printing 0.48″ for Birmingham, while the GFS much more aggressive with 1.59″. The NAM is most likely closer to the truth, but we could see some amounts over one inch in the U.S. 43 corridor from Tuscaloosa south to Mobile.
Temperatures will back down because of the clouds and showers; some places might not make it out of the 70s where the rain is more widespread.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Our weather goes dry again on Friday, with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the mid 80s. Then, for the weekend, expect partly sunny, warm days and fair nights with highs in the 87 to 90 degree range. The 00Z GFS keeps the upper ridge a little closer to us, which would mean very few showers. But, one or two showers could show up on radar each afternoon… but they should be widely spaced.
AARON’S DREAM WEEKEND: The weather will be very warm at Talladega this race weekend (I really think hot is the better word), with highs between 87 and 90 degrees each day Friday through Sunday. We don’t expect any rain around the track Friday, but a brief shower or storm is possible Saturday and Sunday. The chance of rain specifically at the Superspeedway both days is only around 20 percent, however. Expect a decent amount of sunshine both days, so be sure and bring the sunscreen.
AT THE BEACH: Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely on the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores today and tomorrow, but the weather looks great Friday through Sunday with a good supply of sunshine each day. Highs will be around 80 today and tomorrow, followed by low to mid 80s over the weekend. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 77 degrees.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The GFS continues the idea of an upper trough setting up over the eastern half of the nation in the May 10-15 time frame. This should mean a decent chance of rain for us around Thursday of next week (May 10), followed by cooler air. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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Busy day ahead… I have weather programs at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover, and at Helene Elementary in Shelby County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
