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ON THE RADAR: We begin this Monday with a few showers and storms up north parts of North Alabama, with the activity more widespread to the west over the northern half of Mississippi. A few strong storms have formed over the northern tip of Smith Lake around 6:00 a.m.
This will be the day this week with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms for Alabama; most of them will come later, during the afternoon hours and tonight. Most places have a better than 50/50 chance of getting wet, and rain amounts of around 1/2 inch can be expected, with locally heavier amounts with stronger storms.
A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with potential for hail and gusty winds, but there is no tornado threat. The high today should generally in the mid 80s, about where we should be this time of the year.
While showers and storms will diminish once the sun goes down, some could linger well into the night. There are a few high school graduations that are outdoors tonight; just be aware that you might need an indoor alternative if a storm gets close.
TOMORROW: Enough moisture will stick around for some risk of a shower or storm tomorrow, especially over East Alabama. But, they should be scattered and not everyone will see rain.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Right on cue, our weather begins to heat up as school dismisses and most folks go into summer mode. An upper high overhead will mean dry weather on these three days with hotter afternoons; the high will be close to 90 degrees Thursday, with low 90s possible Friday.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Models are in good agreement. A deep, cold upper trough forms over the western half of the nation, with an upper ridge over the east. In fact, the GFS shows a 5880 meter 500 mb heat bubble pretty much over us this weekend, meaning the holiday weekend will be mostly hot and dry. Lots of sunshine Saturday through Monday with highs in the 90 to 95 degree range. Welcome to summer. Any showers will be very, very isolated thanks to the upper high overhead.
AT THE BEACH: Other than the risk of isolated showers and storms tomorrow, the weather looks dry and warm on the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores all the way through the Memorial Day weekend. Highs will be in the 80s, with lows around 70. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was a warm 80 degrees.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO: This compact tropical storm is in the Atlantic east of Jacksonville, Florida, barely hanging on due to dry air surrounding the system and harsh winds aloft. A small convective cluster did form near the center overnight, and NHC keeps the system as a minimal tropical storm with winds of 40 mph. Alberto will move northeast and dissipate by tomorrow night… and is no threat to land other than some rough surf off the South Atlantic coast. No impact on Alabama at all. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.
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I will be speaking at the Shades Valley Rotary Club today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
