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CHANGES AHEAD: Alabama’s weather will stay pretty hot today and tomorrow; the high will be not too far from the 90 degree mark, which is about five degrees above average for late May. But, the upper high will slowly weaken, opening the door for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.
We actually have some strong storms this morning over West Tennessee between Memphis and Nashville that has prompted a few severe thunderstorm warnings at daybreak; some of these could develop into Northwest Alabama, but the bulk of the storms should come mainly during the peak of the daytime heating process later today.
TOMORROW: We will continue to mention some risk of scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, but the main show will be to the west, where SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe weather for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. Could be a significant tornado threat there with a strong upper trough involved along with lots of instability.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: That upper trough will move east, and will bring a good chance of showers and storms to Alabama on these days, along with decreasing heat levels. By Friday many North Alabama communities will struggle to reach the low 80s with clouds, showers, and thunderstorms.
The upper trough actually goes negative tilt by Thursday night and Friday, and it sure looks like a decent severe weather setup here. While there is not overwhelming model agreement, it looks like the main window for severe weather in Alabama will come from about 6:00 p.m. Thursday through 3:00 p.m. Friday.
No doubt we will have a chance of hail and strong winds in any storm that forms during this period. And, quite frankly I can’t rule out the chance of a tornado or two, but the best helicity values are north of Alabama, and for now I would suggest the tornado threat is not especially high. But, as we get closer to the event we can adjust the forecast as needed.
On the positive side, rain amounts of at least one inch are likely, and some spots might see two inches where the heavier storms develop Thursday and Friday. This is great news for a state that has become pretty dusty in recent days.
DELIGHTFUL WEEKEND: Dry air moves in here Friday night, and the weekend looks excellent, with sunny days, clear cool nights, and lower humidity. A good chance we will be in the 50s early Saturday and Sunday morning; the high Saturday will be in the low to mid 80s, and then upper 80s are likely Sunday.
TROPICS: Tropical depression Beryl this morning is near Valdosta, Georgia, and will move east/northeast, away from Alabama. This system has brought very beneficial rain to much of East Georgia and North Florida, and continues to do so this morning. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
GULF COAST WEATHER: We expect about 7 to 9 hour of sunshine along the Gulf Coast today from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, with a few widely scattered showers and storms. Then, for tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday, about 4 to 6 hours of sun daily with scattered showers and storms. For now the weekend looks dry with a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday. Highs will remain in the 80s for the next 7 days, and sea water temperatures are generally in the low to mid 80s.
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