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OCCASIONAL SHOWERS: No doubt the weather system this weekend, in terms of rain production, over performed on the Gulf Coast, where rain amounts of 10-15 inches were fairly common from Mobile over to Pensacola with very serious flooding issues. But, it also underperformed over the northern counties of Alabama as the big rain mass to the south cut off the good inflow and reduced rain coverage and intensity.
The setup for wet weather stays in place today for most of the Southeast U.S. We will forecast occasional showers and a few thunderstorms through tonight; like recent days the heaviest rain will be down south, where it pouring again this morning over Mobile and Baldwin Counties. The NAM is printing and additional 0.86″ for Birmingham… while the GFS is at 0.97″.
Temperatures will remain well below average today… many places won’t make it out of the 70s because of clouds and showers; Birmingham’s official high yesterday was only 77 degrees.
TO THE NORTHWEST: An MCS (mesoscale convective system) is forecast to form over Arkansas and some of the adjacent states late today and tonight, where SPC has defined a “slight risk” of severe weather. These storms, if they hold together, could move into North Alabama late tonight or early tomorrow morning. We will keep an eye on it, although the storms should be weakening as they move in here and severe weather issues are not expected.
TOMORROW: For now we will mention scattered showers and storms tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds, but if the mass of organized storms to the northwest does hold together, it could very well mean the best chance of rain will come tomorrow morning, followed by a drier afternoon. We will keep an eye on radar trends. We should reach the mid 80s tomorrow.
REST OF THE WEEK: Our weather trends warmer and drier Wednesday through Friday. Any showers over the northern half of the state should be few and far between as afternoon highs rise to near the 90 degree mark, a reminder this is summer in Alabama. Days will be partly sunny and nights will be mostly fair. Any showers should come during the afternoon and evening hours.
OUR WEEKEND: Not much overall change. Just a few widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, partly sunny both days with a high in the mid to upper 80s. Pretty much what you expect around here in June.
AT THE BEACH: No doubt the weekend was a nasty wash-out. We found a CoCoRAHS report of 21.70” in southern Escambia County, FL, about 11 miles southwest of Pensacola. 13.13 inches fell Saturday at the Pensacola International Airport and 10.96 inches fell at the Naval Air Station. Showers and storms remain likely along the Gulf Coast today from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, but they will become more scattered tomorrow. Then, Wednesday through the weekend, the weather will be much more routine with about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day with scatterer showers or storms. Many coastal communities won’t get out of the 70s today, but highs rise back into the 80s over the latter half of the week.
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Busy week for me… will be at Double Oak Community Church in Mount Laurel all week for “Beyond The Sky”… had lots of fun shooting the video for this year’s VBS at the U.S. Space and Rocket Center in Huntsville. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
