There will be no video this morning due to connectivity issues at my location on Mt. Cheaha.
As I noted yesterday, Central Alabama appears likely to be pinched between systems with dry and warm weather winning out. So for the moment, the forecast remains essentially dry and warm as we watch the future motion of a couple of systems.
There are two major elements in our pattern right now. First we have a ridge over the eastern half of the country with a surface high pressure center over the East Coast of the US. A strong trough moving across Canada will dampen the dampen the ridge today and Friday which could bring a weak front into the Tennessee River Valley. However, moisture remains limited for much of the Southeast, so even with a front at least nearby, there appears to be little reason to forecast more than isolated showers in the heat of the afternoon for Friday and Saturday.
To our south, moisture over the Florida Straits will drift northwestward into the Gulf. But it seems unlikely at this time that this moisture would get to us. By Saturday the upper ridge builds strong again just to our west, so that area of disturbed weather is not likely to reach us as long as the GFS is correct. The GFS shunts the disturbed area into the central Gulf of Mexico where conditions could become more suitable for tropical storm development in a few days.
So while we are watching two systems on this the official start of summer and our longest day of the year for daylight, we are likely to remain warm and dry into next week.
The GFS suggests the ridge to our west nudges somewhat further west with a fairly deep trough over the eastern US by Tuesday. While this does not seem to bring much in the way of rain chances, it would bring a drop in temperatures with afternoon highs dipping back a tad into the upper 80s. And with summer in full swing, I’ll take whatever few degrees we can chop off the highs.
In the tropics, Chris continued in the North Atlantic but was no threat to land. Over the western Caribbean and Southeast Gulf, an area of disturbed weather was expected to drift northwestward producing rain over South Florida but conditions are currently unfavorable for storm formation.
Severe weather potential across the country remains confined to the northern tier of the country.
Voodoo country shows a substantial trough over the eastern US around July 2nd that could bring a front into the area with the ridge centered over eastern New Mexico. Fronts don’t usually make an appearance in July but it can happen and I hope so since it would bring good chances for rain. But the GFS suggests the summer ridge comes back around July 4th and 5th.
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I plan to post an updated discussion on Friday morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
