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NOISY START TO THE DAY: We begin this day with very strong storms over the eastern half of Alabama, a very good sign the worst of the heat wave is now behind us. In fact, the NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning for a part of St. Clair and Calhoun Counties before sunrise due to the potential for hail. All of the early morning storms are producing very frequent lightning, and heavy but welcome rain. The storms are moving east/southeast, but seem to be building slowly to the west as I write this update.
THE DAY AHEAD: No doubt with this morning rain today won’t be as hot as yesterday, but some spots could still approach 100 degrees, especially over some the western counties that have not received rain yet. We will continue to mention scattered showers and storms as colder air aloft sets up an unstable atmosphere over our state. We noted the surface based CAPE (convective available potential energy, or instability) hit 5,000 j/kg at times yesterday, which is about as unstable as it gets. The high today will be in the 95-100 degree range.
THE WEEK AHEAD: Nothing like a mid-week holiday; many folks will be away from the office this week. Looks like each day we can mention the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours (but not all of them, like today), with highs generally in the 93-97 degree range, which is not far from average values for July in Alabama.
Long time readers know summer convection is one of the great weaknesses of weather forecasters in Alabama. There is no way we can tell you when and where it will rain later today and early tonight; we simply have to mention scattered showers and storms in the forecast each day in this kind of pattern. The chance of any one spot getting wet on daily basis tomorrow through Friday is about one in three.
And, keep in mind the most dangerous element of summer storms is lightning. It can be fierce, and it is something we have to respect. And, wet microbursts are also an issue; those are small areas of damaging straight line wind that often comes toward the end of a storm’s life cycle and it begins to collapse. We had some of this yesterday over East Alabama.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Pretty routine conditions if you are headed to the beach for the Fourth. About 7 to 9 hours of sun each day, with the usual risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 88-91 degree range, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was a warm 86 degrees.
We should note the tropics are quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week.
WORST OF THE HEAT OVER: I sure get the idea we are now past the worst of the summer heat in Alabama this season. Don’t get me wrong; it is ALWAYS hot in July and August in Alabama. But, I think the 104 in Birmingham yesterday was the peak of the heat this year. Models show a reversal toward mid-month with the big heat bubble shifting to the west, and a pattern that is not as hot over the eastern and southeastern part of the U.S. Time will tell if that is right.
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