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CALM MORNING: A pretty nasty MCS rolled through parts of North Alabama last night, producing tree and power line damage across a number of counties on the journey around the “ring of fire”. The storms moved from northeast to southwest around the periphery of the upper high northwest of Alabama, which is also the center of the nasty heat wave. In the wake of the storms, conditions are nice and calm this morning with just a little patchy fog in spots where the storms developed.
LATER TODAY: Once again during the peak of the daytime heating process look for scattered showers and storms to fire across Alabama. And, like recent days, it won’t rain everywhere, but a few neighborhoods will see a good, cooling shower. And, also like recent days, a few strong storms are likely. The main risk with summer storms will from wet microbursts (small scale areas of damaging straight line winds) and small hail. Away from the storms, look for highs today in the mid to upper 90s.
THE DAYS AHEAD: We expect a gradual increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the next five days as a pattern change begins. The core of the heat will move out to the western U.S., and an upper trough forms over the east. This, in turn, pushes a surface front down our way. That front will bring some refreshing heat relief to places like Chicago and St. Louis, and should stall out somewhere just north of Alabama. This should set the stage for scattered to numerous showers and storms on a daily basis Sunday into much of next week, giving us hope for beneficial rain and cooler temperatures.
In fact, the GFS is printing highs only in the 86-89 degree range for Birmingham Monday through Friday of next week. That would be highly unusual for July in Alabama…. you have to figure we will slip into the low 90s on one or two days, but no doubt the heat will back down considerably.
LONG RANGE: Again I stand by the idea that the worst of the summer heat is behind us. Those days of 100-104 degree heat a week ago should be the peak of the heat this summer… of course we all know it is always hot in July and August in Alabama, I just don’t see that same setup as the door remains open for the most intense heat to stay out west. No way of knowing for sure, but I am pretty confident this idea is correct.
GULF COAST WEATHER: We will forecast about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day along the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend. There will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day (pretty much a fixture in summer forecasts for the coast), and daily highs along the immediate coast will be in the 86-90 degree range. Sea water temperatures are generally in the mid 80s.
We note the tropics are quiet, and tropical storm formation in the Atlantic basin is not expected for the next five days. The eastern Atlantic, the breeding ground for the Cape Verde storms, features cool ocean water and dry air for now.
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