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The overall forecast look from yesterday appears to be on track for us as we see a major change in the overall pattern that could bring a change from drought to a flooding threat for North and Central Alabama. This morning a stationary front was located along the Ohio River Valley while in the upper atmosphere the strong ridge has continued to migrate to the west as it bulges northward into western Canada. This allows a trough – a fairly sharp trough for this time of year – to develop over the eastern US. The trough will more or less stay along the Mississippi River for much of the upcoming week until it begins to weaken by next weekend. This will see the front sag into the Tennessee River Valley and set up a boundary that will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms for the next 5 to 7 days. And with a very moisture rich air mass in place, heavy rains become a possibility with rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches possible for some places across Central and North Alabama.
While our drought has continued to worsen, we can surely use the rain, however, we will need to be watching for localized flooding issues wherever the heaviest rains develop especially in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.
It is interesting to note that the model consistency – that is run to run – has been good, so confidence in the forecast is good. And the European and GFS have become much closer in the model solution which also raises confidence in the forecast.
This morning, a small upper air disturbance over Mississippi was helping to generate a patch of thunderstorms which was moving steadily northwestward toward the Memphis area. Precipitable water values are slightly lower in eastern Alabama than western Alabama, so it would seem the better chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms today will be central and western sections of Central Alabama.
The trough will develop Monday and sharpen up on Tuesday, so I think today and Monday will see scattered showers once again, perhaps a little more coverage on Monday than today. Clouds and showers will help to keep temperatures down with lower 90s today and Monday and upper 80s for highs for much of the rest of the week.
Severe weather is likely to remain isolated in the moisture rich atmosphere through the next 3 to 5 days with damaging downburst wind the most likely event. And the tropics remain quiet with a bit of cloudiness in the western Caribbean.
The trough over the eastern US does weaken next weekend, so it is no surprise to see the ridge build back into the area. The good news is that the main ridge stays to our west so it does not appear likely that we’ll get back into extreme heat in the foreseeable future.
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James Spann should be back Monday morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. I hope you have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
