Forecast seems to be pretty much on track today with scattered showers having developed primarily over western Alabama from the Florence area to just north of Mobile. Most of the showers are fairly small with no big clusters thought numerous showers show abundant cloud to ground lightning. CAPE values from the morning soundings across the Southeast US from the morning soundings were around 1000 joules per kilogram. A isolated severe thunderstorm is still possible but I do not expect to see many of the spotty showers become severe today.
A few warnings were noted in Arkansas and one just northwest of Greenville, SC. SPC has elongated the slight risk area for today and tonight along the stationary front in a narrow band from just north of Little Rock, AR, across Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virgina including the DELMARVA peninsula. Still appears likely that Day 3 (Tuesday) will see a good supply of showers and thunderstorms with any severe weather coming in a somewhat disorganized fashion.
Temperatures just before 2 pm were generally in the lower 90s in Central Alabama and the mid 90s across the Tennessee Valley.
A quick peek at the 12Z GFS model run continues the trend of developing the trough over the eastern half of the country bringing us a week of unsettled weather and some generous rain. We can sure use the rain with moderate or greater drought conditions over much of the state of Alabama, in fact over much of the Southeast US. 1 to 3 inches of rain over the next five days especially in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame seems a good possibility for us.
-Brian-
