A nearly stationary front lies just north of I-59 this afternoon. It is getting ready to move north as a warm front in response to an approaching upper level system.
South of the front, skies are clearing enough to allow for a decent amount of sunshine. In the sunny areas, temperatures are in the 70s. To the north, it is only 59F in Cullman and 55F at Haleyville.
Dewpoints over Central Alabama are near 60 in the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham areas. Dewpoints in the 60s are over Mississippi, ready to be pulled more northward ahead of the disturbance.
Back to the west, our upper level disturbance was moving across Louisiana and into southwestern Mississippi.
Over the Tennessee Valley, rain and storms are happening. Huntsville was reporting thunderstorms nearby with a chilly 52F.
Upper level temperatures are fairly cold and this will lead to increasing instability as we go through the afternoon and surface temperatures continue to heat up. With steep temperature decreases with height, hail will be a big component of any storms that form.
CAPE values were already above 500 j/kg to the south of I-59 and west of I-65. The area of unstable air will expand northward and northeastward and values will exceed 1,000 j/kg this afternoon.
Some of the storms may become severe this afternoon into the evening because of large hail. Hail 3/4 of an inch or larger is considered to be severe.
The approaching disturbance will enhance storm development also late this afternoon into the overnight. The storms will move out overnight, although a shower will be possible on Sunday, especially during the morning hours.
