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JUST WHAT WE NEED: Forecast summer convection in Alabama is always a mystery. Storms on a summer afternoon tend to be very scattered and random, making it impossible to tell you early in the morning when and where it will rain in the afternoon. And, occasionally you get a rogue morning thunderstorm complex that seemingly comes out of nowhere. While we can’t give you specific start and stop times for rain for any one location, generally speaking, the trend will be for a much better coverage of showers and storms across our state this week with lower heat levels.
This is a pattern reversal from the heat wave look we had a couple of weeks ago; an upper ridge is developing over the western third of the nation, which will represent the hottest weather, while the eastern states will cool down thanks to an upper trough. And, a surface front will drift slowly down into Tennessee later today and stall out. This pattern favors unsettled weather for the Deep South this week.
HOW MUCH RAIN? Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the guys at HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) are suggest rain amounts of 3 to 3.5 inches over much of North Alabama through Friday night, with 1-2 inches over the southern counties of the state. Of course, your actual amount will vary, but this is a really beneficial rain setup in July, which is rare without a tropical storm or hurricane involved.
Seems like the best coverage of rain comes on Wednesday and Thursday based on 00Z model data, but each day should feature scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
TEMPERATURES: Temperatures over the next seven days should generally be below average around here; today most places will see a high in the 89-93 degree range, but most places won’t get out of the 80s during the mid-week period. In fact the 00Z NAM is printing a high of only 83 degrees for Birmingham on Wednesday due to clouds and rain. Might be a bit too cool, but could be correct in some spots where the rain gets an early start.
WEEKEND PEEK: Showers and storms should thin out a bit by Saturday and Sunday, with a mix of sun and clouds both days and a high in the low 90s.
AT THE BEACH: For the area from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, expect about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine each day this week with a daily threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 86-89 degree range along the immediate coast, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is a warm 85 degrees.
TROPICS: The vast Atlantic basin is very quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. Other in the eastern Pacific, Emilia has strengthened into a hurricane, but it is moving west and is no threat to land.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CDT… and you can watch it live via a Google Hangout here.
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I will be doing a program at the Boys and Girls Club in Hueytown today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
